AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Azerbaijan Premier League Feb 09, 2026

Turan Tovuz

Home
VS
14:30

Karvan

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Turan Tovuz Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Karvan Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 82%
Standings 78%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 50%
xG: 1.56 - 0.44
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.4 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (50%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Turan Tovuz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Karvan Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (21%) 2-0 (16%) 0-0 (14%) 1-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 28%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
Turan Tovuz Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Turan Tov… vs Kəpəz 0-0
Feb 01 Turan Tov… vs Qarabağ FK 1-0
Jan 25 Turan Tov… vs Sumqayıt 2-1
Dec 19 Turan Tov… vs Kəpəz 0-2
Dec 13 Turan Tov… vs Sabah FA 1-3
Dec 08 Turan Tov… vs Qabala 0-0
Dec 02 Turan Tov… vs Şahdağ 1-2
Nov 28 Turan Tov… vs Neftchi B… 0-0
Nov 22 Turan Tov… vs Araz 1-1
Nov 08 Turan Tov… vs Zira 0-0
Karvan Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 Karvan vs Sumqayıt 0-2
Jan 25 Karvan vs Sabah FA 4-1
Dec 20 Karvan vs Neftchi B… 1-2
Dec 15 Karvan vs Mil-MuÄŸan 1-1
Dec 07 Karvan vs Şamaxı 0-3
Dec 03 Karvan vs QarabaÄŸ FK 3-0
Nov 29 Karvan vs QarabaÄŸ FK 2-0
Nov 21 Karvan vs Kəpəz 1-2
Nov 08 Karvan vs Araz 2-1
Nov 01 Karvan vs Zira 2-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Karvan struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Oct 24, 2025 Karvan 1 - 2 Turan Tovuz Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Turan Tovuz to win (63% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 63% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Turan Tovuz Power 0
Karvan Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Turan Tovuz Position

+9

Position Gap

12

Karvan Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 13%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.