AI Match Insights
Super League Mar 16, 2025
FC Lugano
HomeVS
15:30
FC Winterthur
AwayAI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
FC Lugano Win
Draw
FC Winterthur Win
Home Win
(39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%)
GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%)
GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
TOP5vsBOT (72.7%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
80%
Standings
85%
Market
50%
Combined: 54%
Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 1.80 - 0.81
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 0.8
Position gap: 10 places
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Lugano Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
FC Winterthur Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (13%)
2-0 (12%)
1-1 (11%)
2-1 (10%)
0-0 (7%)
3-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
46%
Over 2.5 Goals
47%
Under 2.5 Goals
53%
FC Lugano Form 4.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 09 | FC Lugano vs FC Sion | 2-1 |
| Mar 02 | FC Lugano vs FC Zurich | 0-3 |
| Feb 26 | FC Lugano vs Biel-Bien… | 2-0 |
| Feb 23 | FC Lugano vs BSC Young… | 1-0 |
| Feb 15 | FC Lugano vs FC Luzern | 2-0 |
| Feb 08 | FC Lugano vs Grasshopp… | 1-1 |
| Feb 05 | FC Lugano vs FC St. Ga… | 2-1 |
| Feb 01 | FC Lugano vs FC Sion | 3-2 |
| Jan 25 | FC Lugano vs FC Winter… | 2-3 |
| Jan 19 | FC Lugano vs FC Basel … | 2-2 |
FC Winterthur Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 01 | FC Winter… vs FC St. Ga… | 4-0 |
| Feb 15 | FC Winter… vs BSC Young… | 1-0 |
| Feb 09 | FC Winter… vs FC Luzern | 3-2 |
| Feb 06 | FC Winter… vs FC Zurich | 0-2 |
| Jan 25 | FC Winter… vs FC Lugano | 2-3 |
| Jan 18 | FC Winter… vs BSC Young… | 0-0 |
| Jan 11 | FC Winter… vs FC Luzern | 1-5 |
| Dec 14 | FC Winter… vs FC Luzern | 3-4 |
| Dec 05 | FC Winter… vs Lausanne | 0-3 |
| Dec 01 | FC Winter… vs FC Sion | 1-3 |
Key Analysis Factors
- FC Lugano struggling (4L in last 5) Home
- FC Winterthur struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 8 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2025 | FC Winterthur | 2 - 3 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | FC Lugano | 2 - 1 | FC Winterthur | Super League |
| May 16, 2024 | FC Lugano | 4 - 2 | FC Winterthur | Super League |
| Apr 06, 2024 | FC Winterthur | 2 - 2 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| Dec 10, 2023 | FC Lugano | 2 - 1 | FC Winterthur | Super League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | FC Winterthur | 2 - 3 | FC Lugano | Super League |
| May 14, 2023 | FC Lugano | 2 - 1 | FC Winterthur | Super League |
| Feb 05, 2023 | FC Winterthur | 1 - 0 | FC Lugano | Super League |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: FC Lugano to win (64% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%)
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
FC Lugano Power
0
FC Winterthur Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
2
FC Lugano Position+10
Position Gap12
FC Winterthur Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.