AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Super League Sep 30, 2023

FC Winterthur

Home
VS
16:00

FC Lugano

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
FC Winterthur Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
FC Lugano Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 42% Draw Risk: 34%
xG: 2.13 - 1.40
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 1.4
High draw risk (34%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Winterthur Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
12%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
FC Lugano Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
25%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (9%) 2-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%) 2-2 (7%) 1-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 66%
Under 2.5 Goals 34%
FC Winterthur Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 23 FC Winter… vs Stade Lau… 2-1
Aug 27 FC Winter… vs Lausanne 2-5
Aug 05 FC Winter… vs BSC Young… 5-2
Jul 30 FC Winter… vs FC Basel … 5-2
Jul 22 FC Winter… vs FC Luzern 0-0
May 29 FC Winter… vs BSC Young… 2-1
May 14 FC Winter… vs FC Lugano 2-1
May 06 FC Winter… vs FC Sion 0-1
Apr 30 FC Winter… vs FC Basel … 1-4
Apr 27 FC Winter… vs FC Luzern 3-1
FC Lugano Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 27 FC Lugano vs Lausanne 2-1
Sep 24 FC Lugano vs BSC Young… 4-1
Sep 03 FC Lugano vs FC Luzern 3-2
Aug 05 FC Lugano vs FC Zurich 3-0
Jul 29 FC Lugano vs FC St. Ga… 1-0
Jun 04 FC Lugano vs BSC Young… 3-2
May 29 FC Lugano vs FC Zurich 2-3
May 14 FC Lugano vs FC Winter… 2-1
May 07 FC Lugano vs FC Luzern 2-2
Apr 29 FC Lugano vs Grasshopp… 5-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Lugano struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 14, 2023 FC Lugano 2 - 1 FC Winterthur Super League
Feb 05, 2023 FC Winterthur 1 - 0 FC Lugano Super League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Winterthur Power 0
FC Lugano Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

12

FC Winterthur Position

-10

Position Gap

2

FC Lugano Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 46%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.