AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Super League May 14, 2023

FC Lugano

Home
VS
14:30

FC Winterthur

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
FC Lugano Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
FC Winterthur Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 85%
Market 50%
Combined: 67% Draw Risk: 15%
xG: 3.31 - 0.36
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.3 vs 0.4 Position gap: 10 places
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Lugano Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
4%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
18%
FC Winterthur Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
70%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (15%) 2-0 (14%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (5%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 29%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
FC Lugano Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
May 07 FC Lugano vs FC Luzern 2-2
Apr 29 FC Lugano vs Grasshopp… 5-1
Apr 26 FC Lugano vs FC St. Ga… 1-2
Apr 23 FC Lugano vs FC Sion 2-0
Apr 10 FC Lugano vs FC St. Ga… 1-1
Apr 02 FC Lugano vs Grasshopp… 2-1
Mar 11 FC Lugano vs FC Zurich 2-0
Mar 05 FC Lugano vs FC Sion 1-1
Mar 01 FC Lugano vs FC Sion 0-3
Feb 12 FC Lugano vs FC Luzern 1-1
FC Winterthur Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
May 06 FC Winter… vs FC Sion 0-1
Apr 30 FC Winter… vs FC Basel … 1-4
Apr 27 FC Winter… vs FC Luzern 3-1
Apr 16 FC Winter… vs FC St. Ga… 2-3
Apr 10 FC Winter… vs FC Luzern 1-2
Apr 01 FC Winter… vs FC Basel … 2-0
Mar 04 FC Winter… vs BSC Young… 1-1
Feb 18 FC Winter… vs FC Sion 1-1
Feb 05 FC Winter… vs FC Lugano 1-0
Oct 23 FC Winter… vs FC Basel … 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Lugano in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • FC Winterthur struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 05, 2023 FC Winterthur 1 - 0 FC Lugano Super League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: FC Lugano to win (64% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 64% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Lugano Power 0
FC Winterthur Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

FC Lugano Position

+10

Position Gap

12

FC Winterthur Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.