AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A3 Feb 07, 2026

Marília

Home
VS
21:30

União Barbarense

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Marília Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
União Barbarense Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 61%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.10 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.2
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Marília Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
União Barbarense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (30%) 0-0 (27%) 2-0 (16%) 3-0 (6%) 1-1 (6%) 0-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 12%
Over 2.5 Goals 14%
Under 2.5 Goals 86%
Marília Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Marília vs Itapirense 1-2
Jan 31 Marília vs Paulista … 0-0
Jan 28 Marília vs Bandeiran… 4-0
Jan 24 Marília vs EC São Be… 1-1
Apr 04 Marília vs Sertãozin… 1-0
União Barbarense Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 União Bar… vs Bandeiran… 0-0
Jan 31 União Bar… vs Rio Preto 1-1
Jan 28 União Bar… vs União São… 1-2
Jan 24 União Bar… vs Rio Claro… 0-0
Apr 26 União Bar… vs Paulista … 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Marília in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Marília to win (30% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 30% Confidence
Rules Passed
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Marília Power 0
União Barbarense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Marília Position

+2

Position Gap

7

União Barbarense Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.