AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paraibano Feb 09, 2026

Serra Branca

Home
VS
22:30

Nacional de Patos

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Serra Branca Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Nacional de Patos Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) HWR75+DR<22 (80.6%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 67%
Market 50%
Combined: 63% Draw Risk: 17%
xG: 3.11 - 0.46
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.1 vs 0.5
Score Prediction Analysis
Serra Branca Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
5%
1 goals:
14%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
17%
Nacional de Patos Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
63%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (14%) 2-0 (14%) 1-0 (9%) 3-1 (6%) 2-1 (6%) 1-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 60%
Under 2.5 Goals 40%
Serra Branca Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Serra Bra… vs Confiança… 2-0
Feb 01 Serra Bra… vs Pombal EC 3-1
Jan 29 Serra Bra… vs Atlético … 1-0
Jan 24 Serra Bra… vs EC de Pat… 0-2
Jan 22 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 2-1
Jan 18 Serra Bra… vs Treze 0-2
Mar 16 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 1-1
Mar 09 Serra Bra… vs Sousa 1-1
Feb 13 Serra Bra… vs Nacional … 2-2
Feb 09 Serra Bra… vs EC de Pat… 0-2
Nacional de Patos Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 0-0
Feb 01 Nacional … vs Atlético … 1-0
Jan 29 Nacional … vs EC de Pat… 0-0
Jan 25 Nacional … vs Confiança… 4-4
Jan 22 Nacional … vs Campinense 1-2
Jan 18 Nacional … vs Pombal EC 3-0
Jan 12 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 4-2
Feb 19 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 2-0
Mar 12 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 0-2
Apr 26 Nacional … vs Botafogo … 3-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Serra Branca in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Serra Branca to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Serra Branca Power 0
Nacional de Patos Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Serra Branca Position

+3

Position Gap

4

Nacional de Patos Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.