AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Matogrossense Feb 24, 2024

Cuiabá

Home
VS
19:30

Nova Mutum EC

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Cuiabá Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Nova Mutum EC Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 72%
Standings 79%
Market 50%
Combined: 50% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 1.86 - 1.08
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 1.1
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cuiabá Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Nova Mutum EC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 1-0 (10%) 2-0 (9%) 3-1 (6%) 1-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 56%
Over 2.5 Goals 55%
Under 2.5 Goals 45%
Cuiabá Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 08 Cuiabá vs União Ron… 1-1
Feb 05 Cuiabá vs Mixto 1-2
Feb 01 Cuiabá vs Rioverden… 1-2
Jan 23 Cuiabá vs CEOV Oper… 2-2
Jan 20 Cuiabá vs Primavera… 1-1
Dec 07 Cuiabá vs Athletico… 3-0
Dec 03 Cuiabá vs Flamengo 2-1
Nov 29 Cuiabá vs Internaci… 0-2
Nov 26 Cuiabá vs São Paulo… 0-0
Sep 15 Cuiabá vs América M… 2-2
Nova Mutum EC Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 Nova Mutu… vs Rioverden… 0-1
Feb 15 Nova Mutu… vs CEOV Oper… 1-2
Feb 04 Nova Mutu… vs Primavera… 1-0
Jan 31 Nova Mutu… vs União Ron… 0-1
Mar 04 Nova Mutu… vs União Ron… 2-1
Feb 16 Nova Mutu… vs Cuiabá 1-3
Feb 01 Nova Mutu… vs CEOV Oper… 1-1
Jan 28 Nova Mutu… vs Sport Sin… 1-1
Jan 22 Nova Mutu… vs Rioverden… 0-1
Feb 16 Nova Mutu… vs CEOV Oper… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Nova Mutum EC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 16, 2023 Nova Mutum EC 1 - 3 Cuiabá Matogrossense
Feb 02, 2022 Cuiabá 3 - 2 Nova Mutum EC Matogrossense
Mar 31, 2021 Nova Mutum EC 1 - 1 Cuiabá Matogrossense
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cuiabá Power 0
Nova Mutum EC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

Cuiabá Position

+4

Position Gap

9

Nova Mutum EC Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.