AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Mar 09, 2024

AO Itabaiana

Home
VS
19:00

Lagarto

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
AO Itabaiana Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Lagarto Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 59%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 2.77 - 0.21
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.8 vs 0.2
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AO Itabaiana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
15%
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
81%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (19%) 3-0 (18%) 1-0 (14%) 0-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 51%
Under 2.5 Goals 49%
AO Itabaiana Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 18 AO Itabai… vs Falcon 4-0
Jan 31 AO Itabai… vs Atlético … 2-3
Jan 28 AO Itabai… vs Sergipe 0-2
Apr 08 AO Itabai… vs Sergipe 2-1
Apr 02 AO Itabai… vs Sergipe 2-1
Mar 26 AO Itabai… vs Falcon 1-1
Mar 18 AO Itabai… vs Falcon 1-1
Mar 15 AO Itabai… vs Atlético … 1-0
Feb 26 AO Itabai… vs Sergipe 2-1
Feb 16 AO Itabai… vs Lagarto 1-0
Lagarto Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Lagarto vs Dorense 3-1
Jan 28 Lagarto vs Atlético … 2-1
Jan 20 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Jan 14 Lagarto vs América M… 1-2
Apr 09 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
Apr 01 Lagarto vs Confiança 0-0
Mar 25 Lagarto vs Atlético … 2-0
Mar 19 Lagarto vs Atlético … 1-0
Mar 04 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
Feb 16 Lagarto vs AO Itabai… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • AO Itabaiana in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Lagarto in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 16, 2023 AO Itabaiana 1 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 20, 2022 AO Itabaiana 0 - 0 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 05, 2022 Lagarto 1 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 09, 2021 AO Itabaiana 0 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
May 06, 2021 Lagarto 2 - 0 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
May 01, 2021 AO Itabaiana 1 - 1 Lagarto Sergipano
Mar 24, 2021 Lagarto 0 - 2 AO Itabaiana Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: AO Itabaiana to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
AO Itabaiana Power 0
Lagarto Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

AO Itabaiana Position

+1

Position Gap

3

Lagarto Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.