AI Match Insights
Sergipano Feb 16, 2023
AO Itabaiana
HomeVS
23:15
Lagarto
AwayAI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
AO Itabaiana Win
Draw
Lagarto Win
Home Win
(39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%)
HWR60+ (68.3%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
53%
Standings
59%
Market
50%
Combined: 42%
Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 0.30 - 0.39
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
AO Itabaiana Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
0-0 (50%)
0-1 (20%)
1-0 (15%)
1-1 (6%)
0-2 (4%)
2-0 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
8%
Over 2.5 Goals
3%
Under 2.5 Goals
97%
AO Itabaiana Form 14.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 11 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Falcon | 1-0 |
| Jan 21 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Dorense | 0-1 |
| Apr 02 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Sergipe | 1-0 |
| Mar 31 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Sergipe | 2-0 |
| Mar 20 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Lagarto | 0-0 |
| Feb 25 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Falcon | 2-1 |
| Feb 05 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Lagarto | 1-2 |
| Jan 25 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Falcon | 0-1 |
| May 09 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Lagarto | 0-2 |
| May 06 | AO Itabaiā¦ vs Lagarto | 2-0 |
Lagarto Form 18.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 10 | Lagarto vs AmĆ©rica Mā¦ | 2-0 |
| Feb 04 | Lagarto vs Dorense | 4-1 |
| Jan 21 | Lagarto vs Falcon | 1-0 |
| Mar 20 | Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā¦ | 0-0 |
| Mar 12 | Lagarto vs AmĆ©rica Mā¦ | 4-1 |
| Feb 09 | Lagarto vs AmĆ©rica Mā¦ | 0-1 |
| Feb 05 | Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā¦ | 1-2 |
| May 09 | Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā¦ | 0-2 |
| May 06 | Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā¦ | 2-0 |
| May 01 | Lagarto vs AO Itabaiā¦ | 1-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- AO Itabaiana in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
- Lagarto in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | AO Itabaiana | 0 - 0 | Lagarto | Sergipano |
| Feb 05, 2022 | Lagarto | 1 - 2 | AO Itabaiana | Sergipano |
| May 09, 2021 | AO Itabaiana | 0 - 2 | Lagarto | Sergipano |
| May 06, 2021 | Lagarto | 2 - 0 | AO Itabaiana | Sergipano |
| May 01, 2021 | AO Itabaiana | 1 - 1 | Lagarto | Sergipano |
| Mar 24, 2021 | Lagarto | 0 - 2 | AO Itabaiana | Sergipano |
Final Verdict
STANDARD: AO Itabaiana to win (41% confidence)
STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0
41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
AO Itabaiana Power
0
Lagarto Power
0
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
2
AO Itabaiana Position+1
Position Gap3
Lagarto Position
Home Win Rate: 75%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.