AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga de ExpansiĂłn MX Sep 28, 2024

Tepatitlán

Home
VS
01:06

Dorados

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Tepatitlán Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Dorados Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 83%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.92 - 0.71
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.7 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tepatitlán Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Dorados Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (14%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 0-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
Tepatitlán Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 01 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 2-0
Aug 25 Tepatitlán vs Atlante FC 1-1
Apr 11 Tepatitlán vs Leones Ne… 3-2
Apr 05 Tepatitlán vs Tlaxcala 1-1
Mar 27 Tepatitlán vs Alebrijes… 1-0
Mar 23 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 0-4
Mar 14 Tepatitlán vs Atlante FC 1-2
Jan 12 Tepatitlán vs Dorados 2-0
Sep 25 Tepatitlán vs Tapatío 2-2
Sep 10 Tepatitlán vs Dorados 1-2
Dorados Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 25 Dorados vs TapatĂ­o 3-3
Jul 28 Dorados vs Mineros d… 1-0
Apr 10 Dorados vs CancĂşn 2-2
Apr 06 Dorados vs TapatĂ­o 1-3
Apr 03 Dorados vs Alebrijes… 1-3
Mar 29 Dorados vs Atlante FC 0-3
Mar 23 Dorados vs Mineros d… 3-1
Mar 21 Dorados vs Leones Ne… 1-2
Feb 01 Dorados vs Venados FC 2-3
Jan 12 Dorados vs Tepatitlán 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tepatitlán struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Dorados struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 12, 2024 Tepatitlán 2 - 0 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Sep 10, 2023 Dorados 1 - 2 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Mar 02, 2023 Dorados 2 - 1 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Jun 27, 2022 Tepatitlán 2 - 0 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Feb 16, 2022 Tepatitlán 2 - 0 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Dec 05, 2021 Dorados 1 - 0 Tepatitlán Liga de Expans…
Dec 02, 2021 Tepatitlán 0 - 1 Dorados Liga de Expans…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Tepatitlán to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tepatitlán Power 0
Dorados Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Tepatitlán Position

+5

Position Gap

7

Dorados Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.