AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Championship Feb 28, 2026

ST Johnstone

Home
VS
15:00

Ayr Utd

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
ST Johnstone Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Ayr Utd Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 90%
Standings 61%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 28%
xG: 2.57 - 0.85
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.8
High draw risk (28%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
ST Johnstone Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Ayr Utd Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
43%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
15%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (11%) 3-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
ST Johnstone Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 30 ST Johnst… vs Partick 2-2
Jan 24 ST Johnst… vs Dunfermli… 0-1
Jan 13 ST Johnst… vs Ross Coun… 2-0
Jan 03 ST Johnst… vs Arbroath 1-0
Dec 27 ST Johnst… vs Ross Coun… 0-0
Dec 20 ST Johnst… vs Morton 5-0
Dec 16 ST Johnst… vs Hearts U21 0-1
Dec 12 ST Johnst… vs Ayr Utd 2-4
Dec 06 ST Johnst… vs Raith Rov… 0-0
Nov 29 ST Johnst… vs Cove Rang… 1-2
Ayr Utd Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Ayr Utd vs Raith Rov… 2-1
Jan 24 Ayr Utd vs Partick 2-1
Jan 17 Ayr Utd vs Dundee Utd 2-0
Jan 13 Ayr Utd vs Stranraer 4-1
Jan 10 Ayr Utd vs Airdrieon… 1-1
Dec 27 Ayr Utd vs Morton 1-1
Dec 20 Ayr Utd vs Dunfermli… 2-3
Dec 12 Ayr Utd vs ST Johnst… 2-4
Dec 09 Ayr Utd vs Peterhead 2-1
Dec 06 Ayr Utd vs Partick 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Ayr Utd in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 12, 2025 Ayr Utd 2 - 4 ST Johnstone Championship
Oct 04, 2025 ST Johnstone 0 - 0 Ayr Utd Championship
Jul 25, 2023 ST Johnstone 1 - 2 Ayr Utd League Cup
Jul 23, 2022 ST Johnstone 1 - 0 Ayr Utd League Cup
Final Verdict

STANDARD: ST Johnstone to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
ST Johnstone Power 0
Ayr Utd Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

ST Johnstone Position

+3

Position Gap

4

Ayr Utd Position
Home Win Rate: 54%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.