AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Feb 12, 2026

São Paulo FC

Home
VS
00:30

Gremio

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
São Paulo FC Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Gremio Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 91%
Standings 86%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 2.87 - 1.03
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.9 vs 1.0
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
São Paulo FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Gremio Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
36%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (8%) 3-0 (8%) 1-1 (6%) 1-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Under 2.5 Goals 33%
São Paulo FC Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 São Paulo… vs Santos 1-1
Jan 31 São Paulo… vs Santos 2-0
Jan 29 São Paulo… vs Flamengo 2-1
Jan 24 São Paulo… vs Palmeiras 3-1
Jan 21 São Paulo… vs Portuguesa 2-3
Jan 18 São Paulo… vs Corinthia… 1-1
Jan 16 São Paulo… vs São Berna… 1-0
Jan 11 São Paulo… vs Mirassol 3-0
Dec 03 São Paulo… vs Internaci… 3-0
Nov 30 São Paulo… vs Apafut 1-1
Gremio Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Gremio vs Botafogo 5-3
Jan 31 Gremio vs Juventude 1-1
Jan 28 Gremio vs Fluminense 2-1
Jan 25 Gremio vs Internaci… 4-2
Jan 22 Gremio vs Guaraní d… 0-2
Jan 17 Gremio vs São Luiz 5-0
Jan 15 Gremio vs São José 0-1
Jan 11 Gremio vs Avenida 0-4
Feb 07 Gremio vs Novo Hamb… 2-0
Feb 24 Gremio vs Novo Hamb… 6-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Final Verdict

STANDARD: São Paulo FC to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 94
São Paulo FC Power 0
Gremio Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

São Paulo FC Position

+4

Position Gap

9

Gremio Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.