AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
A-League Mar 19, 2023

Melbourne Victory

Home
VS
06:00

Central Coast Mariners

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Melbourne Victory Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Central Coast Mariners Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 63%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 2.06 - 1.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.1 vs 1.2
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Melbourne Victory Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
13%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
19%
4 goals:
10%
Central Coast Mariners Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
30%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (10%) 1-1 (9%) 2-0 (8%) 1-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 2-2 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 61%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Melbourne Victory Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 04 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-0
Feb 26 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Feb 03 Melbourne… vs Wellingto… 3-1
Jan 26 Melbourne… vs Sydney 1-2
Jan 21 Melbourne… vs Perth Glo… 3-1
Jan 14 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 1-1
Jan 06 Melbourne… vs Brisbane … 0-1
Dec 31 Melbourne… vs Central C… 2-1
Dec 11 Melbourne… vs Macarthur… 0-1
Nov 11 Melbourne… vs Adelaide … 3-0
Central Coast Mariners Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 11 Central C… vs Macarthur… 4-1
Mar 04 Central C… vs Western S… 2-0
Feb 24 Central C… vs Wellingto… 1-1
Feb 18 Central C… vs Perth Glo… 2-2
Feb 10 Central C… vs Brisbane … 1-2
Feb 04 Central C… vs Sydney 3-2
Jan 28 Central C… vs Western S… 2-2
Jan 22 Central C… vs Wellingto… 2-1
Jan 13 Central C… vs Macarthur… 1-2
Jan 07 Central C… vs Adelaide … 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Melbourne Victory struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 31, 2022 Central Coast Marin… 2 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Mar 09, 2022 Central Coast Marin… 1 - 1 Melbourne Victory A-League
Feb 19, 2022 Melbourne Victory 1 - 0 Central Coast Marin… A-League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Melbourne Victory Power 0
Central Coast Mariners Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Melbourne Victory Position

+3

Position Gap

11

Central Coast Mariners Position
Home Win Rate: 57%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.