AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Apr 10, 2024

Sergipe

Home
VS
23:15

Confiança

Away
AI Predictions 41.0% Confidence
Sergipe Win
41.0%
Draw
25.8%
Confiança Win
33.2%
Home Win (41% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 64%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 1.06 - 0.72
Key Insights
Position gap: 6 places
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Sergipe Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Confiança Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (18%) 0-0 (17%) 1-1 (13%) 0-1 (12%) 2-0 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 34%
Over 2.5 Goals 26%
Under 2.5 Goals 74%
Sergipe Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 24 Sergipe vs Falcon 0-1
Feb 17 Sergipe vs Dorense 1-0
Feb 04 Sergipe vs Confiança 2-1
Jan 28 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 0-2
Jan 21 Sergipe vs América M… 1-1
Apr 08 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Apr 02 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Mar 11 Sergipe vs Falcon 4-1
Feb 26 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Feb 12 Sergipe vs Confiança 1-0
Confiança Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 13 Confiança vs Lagarto 0-2
Feb 22 Confiança vs Atlético … 4-0
Feb 04 Confiança vs Sergipe 2-1
Jan 30 Confiança vs Falcon 1-0
Apr 09 Confiança vs Lagarto 2-0
Apr 01 Confiança vs Lagarto 0-0
Mar 15 Confiança vs Falcon 0-2
Mar 04 Confiança vs Lagarto 2-0
Feb 12 Confiança vs Sergipe 1-0
Jan 21 Confiança vs Atlético … 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Sergipe in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Confiança in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 04, 2024 Sergipe 2 - 1 Confiança Sergipano
Feb 12, 2023 Confiança 1 - 0 Sergipe Sergipano
Mar 12, 2022 Confiança 1 - 1 Sergipe Sergipano
Feb 03, 2022 Sergipe 1 - 1 Confiança Sergipano
May 08, 2021 Confiança 0 - 1 Sergipe Sergipano
May 05, 2021 Sergipe 0 - 0 Confiança Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Sergipe to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Sergipe Power 0
Confiança Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Sergipe Position

+6

Position Gap

7

Confiança Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.