AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Challenge League Apr 05, 2025

Mgarr United

Home
VS
17:00

Zurrieq

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
Mgarr United Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Zurrieq Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 90%
Standings 52%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.85 - 1.12
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.9 vs 1.1 Position gap: 5 places
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Mgarr United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
6%
1 goals:
17%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
16%
Zurrieq Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 3-0 (7%) 1-1 (6%) 1-0 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 69%
Under 2.5 Goals 31%
Mgarr United Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 30 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Swieqi Unā€¦ 1-2
Feb 27 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Marsa 1-0
Feb 22 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs PietĆ  Hotā€¦ 3-2
Feb 15 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Marsa 1-1
Feb 09 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Zurrieq 1-1
Jan 18 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Sirens 4-4
Dec 21 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Fgura Uniā€¦ 0-0
Nov 23 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs PietĆ  Hotā€¦ 4-0
Nov 03 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Swieqi Unā€¦ 0-0
Oct 27 Mgarr Uniā€¦ vs Marsa 2-2
Zurrieq Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 02 Zurrieq vs Swieqi Unā€¦ 3-1
Feb 27 Zurrieq vs Swieqi Unā€¦ 3-2
Feb 15 Zurrieq vs Santa Lucā€¦ 3-6
Feb 09 Zurrieq vs Mgarr Uniā€¦ 1-1
Jan 19 Zurrieq vs Fgura Uniā€¦ 0-3
Jan 04 Zurrieq vs Santa Lucā€¦ 2-0
Dec 22 Zurrieq vs Sirens 2-2
Nov 24 Zurrieq vs Marsa 1-0
Oct 26 Zurrieq vs Zebbug Raā€¦ 1-0
Oct 19 Zurrieq vs Gudja Uniā€¦ 1-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mgarr United in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 09, 2025 Zurrieq 1 - 1 Mgarr United Challenge Leagā€¦
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Mgarr United to win (43% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 43% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Mgarr United Power 0
Zurrieq Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

7

Mgarr United Position

+5

Position Gap

12

Zurrieq Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.