AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Carioca - 1 Jan 30, 2025

Botafogo

Home
VS
00:30

Fluminense

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Botafogo Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Fluminense Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 83%
Standings 44%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 48%
xG: 1.55 - 0.32
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.3
High draw risk (48%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Botafogo Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
Fluminense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
73%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
4%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (24%) 2-0 (19%) 0-0 (15%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 22%
Over 2.5 Goals 28%
Under 2.5 Goals 72%
Botafogo Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 26 Botafogo vs Bangu 2-0
Jan 24 Botafogo vs Oeste 0-0
Jan 23 Botafogo vs Volta Red… 1-2
Jan 15 Botafogo vs EC de Pat… 3-0
Jan 14 Botafogo vs Portugues… 2-0
Dec 08 Botafogo vs São Paulo… 2-1
Dec 05 Botafogo vs Internaci… 0-1
Nov 27 Botafogo vs Palmeiras 1-3
Nov 23 Botafogo vs Vitoria 1-1
Nov 22 Botafogo vs Corinthia… 1-3
Fluminense Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 29 Fluminense vs São José … 3-0
Jan 26 Fluminense vs Madureira… 0-0
Jan 12 Fluminense vs Santos 1-0
Dec 08 Fluminense vs Palmeiras 0-1
Dec 05 Fluminense vs Cuiabá 1-0
Dec 01 Fluminense vs Athletico… 1-1
Nov 26 Fluminense vs CriciĂşma 0-0
Nov 23 Fluminense vs Fortaleza 2-2
Nov 02 Fluminense vs Remo 2-2
Oct 17 Fluminense vs Flamengo 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Botafogo in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 21, 2024 Fluminense 0 - 1 Botafogo Serie A
Jun 11, 2024 Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense Serie A
Mar 03, 2024 Fluminense 2 - 4 Botafogo Carioca - 1
Jan 31, 2024 Fluminense 0 - 0 Botafogo Paraibano
Oct 08, 2023 Fluminense 0 - 2 Botafogo Serie A
May 20, 2023 Botafogo 1 - 0 Fluminense Serie A
Apr 29, 2023 Botafogo 2 - 0 Fluminense Friendlies Clu…
Jan 29, 2023 Fluminense 0 - 1 Botafogo Carioca - 1
Jan 15, 2023 Botafogo 2 - 2 Fluminense Paraibano
Oct 23, 2022 Fluminense 2 - 2 Botafogo Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Botafogo to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Botafogo Power 0
Fluminense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Botafogo Position

0

Position Gap

1

Fluminense Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 80%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.