AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Azerbaijan Premier League Nov 26, 2023

Neftchi Baku

Home
VS
11:30

Araz

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Neftchi Baku Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Araz Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 38%
xG: 1.82 - 1.00
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 1.0
High draw risk (38%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Neftchi Baku Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Araz Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
37%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
6%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (11%) 1-1 (11%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (10%) 3-0 (6%) 3-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 53%
Over 2.5 Goals 52%
Under 2.5 Goals 48%
Neftchi Baku Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 23 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 1-0
Sep 30 Neftchi B… vs Turan Tov… 0-1
Sep 23 Neftchi B… vs Zira 1-1
Sep 16 Neftchi B… vs Araz 1-0
May 26 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 1-1
Aug 29 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 2-1
Apr 13 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 0-1
Apr 01 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 3-0
Apr 30 Neftchi B… vs Qizilqum 0-0
Apr 26 Neftchi B… vs Xorazm 3-1
Araz Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 10 Araz vs Kəpəz 0-1
Oct 30 Araz vs QarabaÄŸ FK 2-1
Oct 22 Araz vs Qabala 1-4
Sep 16 Araz vs Neftchi B… 1-0
Sep 03 Araz vs Kəpəz 1-2
Aug 12 Araz vs Qabala 2-0
Aug 04 Araz vs Turan Tov… 0-3
Feb 14 Araz vs Mil-MuÄŸan 3-0
Nov 22 Araz vs Qabala 5-0
Aug 31 Araz vs Mil-MuÄŸan 0-3
Key Analysis Factors
  • Araz in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 16, 2023 Araz 1 - 0 Neftchi Baku Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Neftchi Baku Power 0
Araz Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Neftchi Baku Position

-2

Position Gap

6

Araz Position
Home Win Rate: 11%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.