AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Catarinense - 1 Feb 09, 2026

MarcĂ­lio Dias

Home
VS
23:00

Carlos Renaux

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
MarcĂ­lio Dias Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Carlos Renaux Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 52%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.16 - 0.26
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.2 vs 0.3
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
MarcĂ­lio Dias Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
31%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Carlos Renaux Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
77%
1 goals:
20%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (28%) 0-0 (24%) 2-0 (16%) 1-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 0-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 16%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Under 2.5 Goals 83%
MarcĂ­lio Dias Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Marcílio … vs Joinville 2-4
Jan 25 Marcílio … vs Carlos Re… 2-4
Jan 22 Marcílio … vs Barra 0-1
Jan 18 Marcílio … vs Chapecoen… 1-0
Jan 15 Marcílio … vs Santa Cat… 0-1
Jan 10 Marcílio … vs Figueiren… 1-0
Jan 07 Marcílio … vs Criciúma 2-0
Nov 09 Marcílio … vs Figueiren… 2-1
Nov 02 Marcílio … vs Figueiren… 3-0
Oct 25 Marcílio … vs Santa Cat… 1-1
Carlos Renaux Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 02 Carlos Re… vs Figueiren… 1-0
Jan 25 Carlos Re… vs Marcílio … 2-4
Jan 21 Carlos Re… vs Joinville 0-1
Jan 17 Carlos Re… vs Camboriú 1-1
Jan 15 Carlos Re… vs Avaí 1-0
Jan 11 Carlos Re… vs Brusque 1-0
Jan 08 Carlos Re… vs Concórdia 0-1
Oct 13 Carlos Re… vs Nação 1-1
Oct 05 Carlos Re… vs Blumenau 2-1
Oct 01 Carlos Re… vs Joinville 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • MarcĂ­lio Dias struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 25, 2026 Carlos Renaux 2 - 4 MarcĂ­lio Dias Catarinense - 1
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
MarcĂ­lio Dias Power 0
Carlos Renaux Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

MarcĂ­lio Dias Position

+1

Position Gap

6

Carlos Renaux Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.