AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A4 Feb 11, 2026

Jabaquara

Home
VS
18:00

Joseense

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Jabaquara Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Joseense Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 92%
Standings 85%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 27%
xG: 2.59 - 0.71
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 0.7 Position gap: 10 places
High draw risk (27%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Jabaquara Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Joseense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
49%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (12%) 3-0 (11%) 1-0 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-1 (8%) 1-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 47%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Under 2.5 Goals 41%
Jabaquara Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Jabaquara vs Nacional … 1-0
Mar 22 Jabaquara vs Taquariti… 2-1
Mar 12 Jabaquara vs São Caeta… 0-1
Mar 08 Jabaquara vs Colorado … 2-0
Mar 01 Jabaquara vs AEA 0-1
Feb 15 Jabaquara vs Nacional … 1-0
Mar 23 Jabaquara vs Nacional … 3-2
Joseense Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Joseense vs Penapolen… 2-0
Apr 05 Joseense vs Paulista … 0-2
Mar 29 Joseense vs Paulista … 2-2
Mar 22 Joseense vs Barretos 0-1
Mar 12 Joseense vs AEA 0-2
Mar 08 Joseense vs Inter de … 1-1
Feb 09 Joseense vs Penedense 3-1
Feb 07 Joseense vs Penedense 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Jabaquara struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Joseense struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Jabaquara to win (46% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 46% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Jabaquara Power 0
Joseense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

Jabaquara Position

+10

Position Gap

14

Joseense Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.