AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A4 Feb 07, 2026

Nacional SP

Home
VS
18:00

Grêmio Sãocarlense

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Nacional SP Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Grêmio Sãocarlense Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 2.48 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.5 vs 0.2
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Nacional SP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
8%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Grêmio Sãocarlense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (21%) 3-0 (17%) 1-0 (17%) 0-0 (7%) 2-1 (4%) 3-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 46%
Under 2.5 Goals 54%
Nacional SP Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Nacional … vs Jabaquara 1-0
Apr 19 Nacional … vs Paulista … 3-0
Apr 12 Nacional … vs Paulista … 1-1
Apr 05 Nacional … vs São Caeta… 1-1
Mar 29 Nacional … vs São Caeta… 3-0
Mar 22 Nacional … vs Grêmio Sã… 0-0
Mar 06 Nacional … vs Grêmio Sã… 1-0
Grêmio Sãocarlense Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Grêmio Sã… vs AEA 4-1
Mar 22 Grêmio Sã… vs Nacional … 0-0
Mar 15 Grêmio Sã… vs Paulista … 0-0
Mar 12 Grêmio Sã… vs Colorado … 1-1
Mar 08 Grêmio Sã… vs Taquariti… 1-2
Mar 01 Grêmio Sã… vs São Caeta… 2-1
Jan 22 Grêmio Sã… vs AEA 2-1
Mar 06 Grêmio Sã… vs Nacional … 1-0
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 22, 2025 Grêmio Sãocarlense 0 - 0 Nacional SP Paulista - A4
Mar 06, 2024 Nacional SP 1 - 0 Grêmio Sãocarlense Paulista - A4
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (18% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 18% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Nacional SP Power 0
Grêmio Sãocarlense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

13

Nacional SP Position

-11

Position Gap

2

Grêmio Sãocarlense Position
Home Win Rate: 0%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.