AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga MX Feb 22, 2026

Cruz Azul

Home
VS
03:00

Guadalajara Chivas

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Cruz Azul Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Guadalajara Chivas Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
HOME_FORT (73.3%) HWR60+ (68.3%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 48%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 1.61 - 0.77
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.8
High draw risk (31%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Cruz Azul Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
20%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
14%
4 goals:
6%
Guadalajara Chivas Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
46%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
14%
3 goals:
4%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (11%) 0-0 (9%) 2-1 (9%) 0-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 43%
Over 2.5 Goals 42%
Under 2.5 Goals 58%
Cruz Azul Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 05 Cruz Azul vs Vancouver… 0-3
Jan 31 Cruz Azul vs FC Juarez 3-4
Jan 18 Cruz Azul vs Puebla 1-0
Jan 14 Cruz Azul vs Atlas 2-0
Jan 11 Cruz Azul vs León FC 2-1
Jan 05 Cruz Azul vs CDS Tampi… 2-1
Dec 10 Cruz Azul vs Flamengo 1-2
Dec 07 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Dec 04 Cruz Azul vs Tigres UA… 1-1
Dec 01 Cruz Azul vs Guadalaja… 3-2
Guadalajara Chivas Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Guadalaja… vs Atletico … 2-3
Jan 17 Guadalaja… vs Querétaro 2-1
Jan 14 Guadalaja… vs FC Juarez 0-1
Jan 10 Guadalaja… vs Pachuca 2-0
Jan 04 Guadalaja… vs Atlas 0-0
Dec 01 Guadalaja… vs Cruz Azul 3-2
Nov 28 Guadalaja… vs Cruz Azul 0-0
Nov 08 Guadalaja… vs Monterrey 4-2
Nov 03 Guadalaja… vs Pachuca 0-1
Oct 26 Guadalaja… vs Atlas 4-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Cruz Azul in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Guadalajara Chivas in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 01, 2025 Cruz Azul 3 - 2 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Nov 28, 2025 Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 0 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Aug 31, 2025 Guadalajara Chivas 1 - 2 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Mar 30, 2025 Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Sep 22, 2024 Cruz Azul 1 - 0 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Mar 03, 2024 Cruz Azul 3 - 0 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Nov 05, 2023 Guadalajara Chivas 1 - 0 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Apr 23, 2023 Guadalajara Chivas 2 - 1 Cruz Azul Liga MX
Dec 31, 2022 Guadalajara Chivas 0 - 2 Cruz Azul Copa por México
Oct 02, 2022 Cruz Azul 2 - 1 Guadalajara Chivas Liga MX
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Cruz Azul to win (41% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 41% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Cruz Azul Power 0
Guadalajara Chivas Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Cruz Azul Position

-1

Position Gap

1

Guadalajara Chivas Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 100%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.