AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Paulista - A4 Mar 22, 2025

Grêmio Sãocarlense

Home
VS
18:00

Nacional SP

Away
AI Predictions 50.8% Confidence
Grêmio Sãocarlense Win
19.0%
Draw
30.2%
Nacional SP Win
50.8%
Away Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 50%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.15 - 0.89
Key Insights
Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grêmio Sãocarlense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Nacional SP Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 1-1 (13%) 0-0 (13%) 0-1 (12%) 2-0 (9%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Under 2.5 Goals 67%
Grêmio Sãocarlense Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 15 Grêmio Sã… vs Paulista … 0-0
Mar 12 Grêmio Sã… vs Colorado … 1-1
Mar 08 Grêmio Sã… vs Taquariti… 1-2
Mar 01 Grêmio Sã… vs São Caeta… 2-1
Jan 22 Grêmio Sã… vs AEA 2-1
Mar 06 Grêmio Sã… vs Nacional … 1-0
Nacional SP Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 06 Nacional … vs Grêmio Sã… 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Grêmio Sãocarlense struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 06, 2024 Nacional SP 1 - 0 Grêmio Sãocarlense Paulista - A4
Final Verdict

MASTER: Grêmio Sãocarlense to win (78% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 78% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 97
Grêmio Sãocarlense Power 0
Nacional SP Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Grêmio Sãocarlense Position

+11

Position Gap

13

Nacional SP Position
Home Win Rate: 100%
Away Win Rate: 0%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.