AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Primeira Liga May 14, 2023

FC Porto

Home
VS
19:30

Casa Pia AC

Away
AI Predictions 53.0% Confidence
FC Porto Win
53.0%
Draw
23.4%
Casa Pia AC Win
23.6%
Home Win (53% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 89%
Standings 93%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 2.30 - 0.61
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.3 vs 0.6 Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Porto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
10%
1 goals:
23%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
12%
Casa Pia AC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
54%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
10%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (14%) 1-0 (13%) 3-0 (11%) 2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 3-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 41%
Over 2.5 Goals 53%
Under 2.5 Goals 47%
FC Porto Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
May 07 FC Porto vs Farense 2-0
May 04 FC Porto vs Famalicao 3-2
Apr 26 FC Porto vs Famalicao 1-2
Apr 16 FC Porto vs Moreirense 3-0
Apr 15 FC Porto vs Santa Cla… 2-1
Apr 07 FC Porto vs Benfica 1-2
Apr 03 FC Porto vs Penafiel … 1-2
Mar 19 FC Porto vs Leixões SC 4-0
Mar 10 FC Porto vs Estoril 3-2
Feb 26 FC Porto vs GIL Vicen… 1-2
Casa Pia AC Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 16 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-1
Apr 09 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 3-4
Feb 19 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-0
Jan 29 Casa Pia … vs Santa Cla… 2-1
Jan 22 Casa Pia … vs GIL Vicen… 1-3
Jan 07 Casa Pia … vs FC Porto 0-0
Oct 30 Casa Pia … vs Rio Ave FC 1-0
Oct 22 Casa Pia … vs Sporting … 3-1
Aug 29 Casa Pia … vs Guimaraes 0-1
Aug 07 Casa Pia … vs Santa Cla… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Porto in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 07, 2023 Casa Pia AC 0 - 0 FC Porto Primeira Liga
Final Verdict

MASTER: FC Porto to win (83% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 83% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 15
FC Porto Power 0
Casa Pia AC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

FC Porto Position

+15

Position Gap

16

Casa Pia AC Position
Home Win Rate: 89%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.