AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Iraqi League Feb 06, 2026

Baghdad

Home
VS
12:00

Al Minaa Basra

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Baghdad Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Al Minaa Basra Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 83%
Standings 55%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 52%
xG: 1.86 - 0.66
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.7
High draw risk (52%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Baghdad Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
16%
1 goals:
29%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Al Minaa Basra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
52%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (10%) 2-1 (9%) 3-0 (9%) 0-0 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 41%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Baghdad Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 31 Baghdad vs Erbil 1-1
Jan 26 Baghdad vs Gharraf 3-2
Jan 22 Baghdad vs Al-Karma 2-1
Jan 18 Baghdad vs Al Karkh 1-1
Jan 13 Baghdad vs Al Quwa A… 0-2
Jan 09 Baghdad vs Zakho 2-2
Jan 04 Baghdad vs Duhok 1-0
Dec 30 Baghdad vs Al Shorta… 2-1
Dec 22 Baghdad vs Newroz 0-1
Nov 23 Baghdad vs Al-Talaba 2-1
Al Minaa Basra Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 01 Al Minaa … vs Zakho 1-1
Jan 28 Al Minaa … vs Naft 0-0
Jan 23 Al Minaa … vs Al Shorta… 1-1
Jan 19 Al Minaa … vs Al-Talaba 1-2
Jan 14 Al Minaa … vs Al Karkh 0-2
Jan 09 Al Minaa … vs Duhok 1-0
Jan 05 Al Minaa … vs Al Kahrab… 1-2
Jan 01 Al Minaa … vs Newroz 1-1
Dec 28 Al Minaa … vs Al Zawra'a 2-0
Nov 22 Al Minaa … vs Al-Karma 2-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Baghdad struggling (3L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 21, 2024 Al Minaa Basra 0 - 2 Baghdad Iraqi League
Mar 05, 2024 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
May 28, 2022 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
Dec 21, 2021 Al Minaa Basra 1 - 1 Baghdad Iraqi League
May 11, 2021 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
Dec 29, 2020 Al Minaa Basra 0 - 1 Baghdad Iraqi League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Baghdad Power 0
Al Minaa Basra Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

13

Baghdad Position

+2

Position Gap

15

Al Minaa Basra Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 25%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.