AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Jan 11, 2025

Lagarto

Home
VS
21:00

América Mineiro

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Lagarto Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
América Mineiro Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 81%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 48% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 1.56 - 0.49
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.6 vs 0.5
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
21%
1 goals:
33%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
13%
4 goals:
5%
América Mineiro Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 2-0 (16%) 0-0 (13%) 1-1 (10%) 3-0 (8%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Under 2.5 Goals 67%
Lagarto Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 23 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Mar 16 Lagarto vs Falcon 0-0
Mar 13 Lagarto vs Confiança 0-2
Mar 09 Lagarto vs AO Itabai… 2-2
Feb 03 Lagarto vs Dorense 3-1
Jan 20 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-1
Jan 14 Lagarto vs América M… 1-2
Apr 09 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
Apr 01 Lagarto vs Confiança 0-0
Mar 04 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
América Mineiro Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 24 América M… vs Brusque 3-0
Nov 19 América M… vs Ceará 1-0
Nov 12 América M… vs Ituano 3-2
Nov 05 América M… vs Amazonas 1-0
Oct 29 América M… vs Sport Rec… 2-1
Aug 22 América M… vs Chapecoen… 0-0
Aug 17 América M… vs Novorizon… 1-1
May 04 América M… vs Chapecoen… 2-2
Apr 27 América M… vs Novorizon… 2-0
Mar 17 América M… vs Atletico-… 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • AmĂ©rica Mineiro in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 14, 2024 América Mineiro 1 - 2 Lagarto Sergipano
Feb 10, 2023 Lagarto 2 - 0 América Mineiro Sergipano
Mar 12, 2022 Lagarto 4 - 1 América Mineiro Sergipano
Feb 09, 2022 América Mineiro 0 - 1 Lagarto Sergipano
Final Verdict

MASTER: Lagarto to win (78% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 78% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 96
Lagarto Power 0
América Mineiro Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.