AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Jan 14, 2024

América Mineiro

Home
VS
18:30

Lagarto

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
América Mineiro Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Lagarto Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 86%
Standings 50%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.75 - 0.28
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 0.3
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
América Mineiro Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Lagarto Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
76%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (23%) 2-0 (20%) 0-0 (13%) 3-0 (12%) 1-1 (6%) 2-1 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 20%
Over 2.5 Goals 32%
Under 2.5 Goals 68%
América Mineiro Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 06 América M… vs Goiás 1-0
Dec 03 América M… vs Bahia 3-2
Nov 30 América M… vs Palmeiras 4-0
Nov 26 América M… vs Flamengo 0-3
Nov 04 América M… vs Atletico-… 1-1
Sep 15 América M… vs Cuiabá 2-2
Jul 02 América M… vs Atletico-… 2-2
May 07 América M… vs Cuiabá 1-2
Apr 09 América M… vs Atletico-… 2-0
Apr 01 América M… vs Atletico-… 2-3
Lagarto Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 09 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
Apr 01 Lagarto vs Confiança 0-0
Mar 04 Lagarto vs Confiança 2-0
Feb 16 Lagarto vs AO Itabai… 1-0
Feb 10 Lagarto vs América M… 2-0
Feb 04 Lagarto vs Dorense 4-1
Jan 21 Lagarto vs Falcon 1-0
Mar 20 Lagarto vs AO Itabai… 0-0
Mar 12 Lagarto vs América M… 4-1
Feb 09 Lagarto vs América M… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • AmĂ©rica Mineiro struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Lagarto struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 10, 2023 Lagarto 2 - 0 América Mineiro Sergipano
Mar 12, 2022 Lagarto 4 - 1 América Mineiro Sergipano
Feb 09, 2022 América Mineiro 0 - 1 Lagarto Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (18% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 18% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
América Mineiro Power 0
Lagarto Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.