AI Match Insights

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Azerbaijan Premier League Jan 17, 2025

Qarabağ FK

Home
VS
15:00

Şamaxı

Away
AI Predictions 71.0% Confidence
Qarabağ FK Win
71.0%
Draw
19.8%
Şamaxı Win
9.2%
Home Win (71% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 70%
Market 50%
Combined: 64% Draw Risk: 5%
xG: 3.87 - 0.44
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.9 vs 0.4 Position gap: 5 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Qarabağ FK Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
2%
1 goals:
8%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
20%
4 goals:
20%
Şamaxı Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
64%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
6%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (10%) 3-1 (6%) 1-0 (5%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Qarabağ FK Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 22 Qarabağ FK vs Araz 2-0
Dec 19 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 0-1
Dec 16 Qarabağ FK vs Sumqayıt 5-0
Dec 07 Qarabağ FK vs Sabah FA 1-1
Dec 04 Qarabağ FK vs Qabala 0-2
Dec 01 Qarabağ FK vs Neftchi B… 0-3
Nov 10 Qarabağ FK vs Zira 4-0
Nov 01 Qarabağ FK vs Turan Tov… 0-0
Oct 27 Qarabağ FK vs Şamaxı 3-0
Oct 24 Qarabağ FK vs Ajax 0-3
Şamaxı Form 0.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 19 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 0-1
Dec 04 Şamaxı vs Zira 3-1
Nov 30 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 0-1
Nov 24 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 2-1
Nov 02 Şamaxı vs Zira 0-2
Oct 27 Şamaxı vs Qarabağ FK 3-0
Oct 19 Şamaxı vs Araz 0-1
Sep 20 Şamaxı vs Kəpəz 0-2
Sep 14 Şamaxı vs Sumqayıt 1-0
Aug 25 Şamaxı vs Zira 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Qarabağ FK in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Şamaxı struggling (5L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 7 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 19, 2024 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 27, 2024 Qarabağ FK 3 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 02, 2023 Şamaxı 0 - 1 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Jan 31, 2023 Qarabağ FK 3 - 1 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Oct 30, 2022 Şamaxı 0 - 4 Qarabağ FK Azerbaijan Pre…
Aug 27, 2022 Qarabağ FK 4 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Apr 15, 2022 Qarabağ FK 8 - 0 Şamaxı Azerbaijan Pre…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Qarabağ FK to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Qarabağ FK Power 0
Şamaxı Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Qarabağ FK Position

+5

Position Gap

7

Şamaxı Position
Home Win Rate: 60%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.