AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FKF Premier League Dec 07, 2024

Tusker

Home
VS
10:00

Mathare United

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Tusker Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Mathare United Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 45% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.35 - 0.67
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.7
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tusker Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Mathare United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
51%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (18%) 0-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-1 (12%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 33%
Under 2.5 Goals 67%
Tusker Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 27 Tusker vs Mara Sugar 2-1
Oct 26 Tusker vs KCB 3-2
Oct 23 Tusker vs Ulinzi St… 1-1
Sep 29 Tusker vs Police 1-1
Aug 24 Tusker vs Sofapaka 1-0
Jun 19 Tusker vs Posta Ran… 1-2
Jun 15 Tusker vs Bandari 2-1
May 18 Tusker vs Police 0-1
Apr 21 Tusker vs Ulinzi St… 0-1
Mar 10 Tusker vs AFC Leopa… 1-0
Mathare United Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 01 Mathare U… vs Ulinzi St… 0-0
Nov 23 Mathare U… vs Posta Ran… 0-2
Nov 03 Mathare U… vs KCB 1-0
Oct 18 Mathare U… vs Bidco Uni… 1-0
Sep 21 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 1-1
Sep 15 Mathare U… vs Homeboyz 0-0
Jun 22 Mathare U… vs Mara Sugar 1-0
Jun 16 Mathare U… vs Mombasa E… 2-2
Jun 07 Mathare U… vs Nairobi U… 2-3
Apr 21 Mathare U… vs Vihiga Un… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mathare United in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 12, 2023 Mathare United 0 - 2 Tusker FKF Premier Le…
Feb 18, 2023 Tusker 2 - 1 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Dec 30, 2021 Tusker 4 - 1 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Jul 20, 2021 Mathare United 0 - 0 Tusker FKF Premier Le…
Jan 31, 2021 Tusker 1 - 0 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tusker Power 0
Mathare United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Tusker Position

+4

Position Gap

12

Mathare United Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.