AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FKF Premier League Apr 12, 2023

Mathare United

Home
VS
12:15

Tusker

Away
AI Predictions 46.0% Confidence
Mathare United Win
25.0%
Draw
29.0%
Tusker Win
46.0%
Away Win (46% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 42%
Market 50%
Combined: 44% Draw Risk: 31%
xG: 2.63 - 1.97
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.6 vs 2.0
High draw risk (30%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Mathare United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
7%
1 goals:
19%
2 goals:
25%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
14%
Tusker Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
14%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
18%
4 goals:
9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (7%) 2-2 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 3-2 (6%) 1-1 (5%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 77%
Under 2.5 Goals 23%
Mathare United Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 20 Mathare U… vs Vihiga Un… 5-0
Mar 16 Mathare U… vs Bandari 0-1
Mar 15 Mathare U… vs Mombasa E… 2-1
Mar 08 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 1-0
Feb 18 Mathare U… vs Tusker 2-1
Feb 12 Mathare U… vs Kisumu Al… 5-0
Feb 04 Mathare U… vs KCB 2-1
Jan 28 Mathare U… vs Homeboyz 1-5
Jan 25 Mathare U… vs Bidco Uni… 1-3
Jan 11 Mathare U… vs Posta Ran… 1-1
Tusker Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 09 Tusker vs Sofapaka 2-0
Apr 05 Tusker vs AFC Leopa… 0-1
Mar 16 Tusker vs Ulinzi St… 2-2
Mar 08 Tusker vs Bandari 1-0
Feb 26 Tusker vs Posta Ran… 0-1
Feb 18 Tusker vs Mathare U… 2-1
Feb 08 Tusker vs Gor Mahia 2-1
Jan 28 Tusker vs Police 3-0
Jan 25 Tusker vs Ulinzi St… 0-0
Jan 22 Tusker vs Sofapaka 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tusker in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
  • Mathare United struggling (4L in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 18, 2023 Tusker 2 - 1 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Dec 30, 2021 Tusker 4 - 1 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Jul 20, 2021 Mathare United 0 - 0 Tusker FKF Premier Le…
Jan 31, 2021 Tusker 1 - 0 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Mathare United Power 0
Tusker Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

12

Mathare United Position

-4

Position Gap

8

Tusker Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 67%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.