AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FKF Premier League Feb 18, 2023

Tusker

Home
VS
12:00

Mathare United

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Tusker Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Mathare United Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 36%
xG: 2.44 - 0.20
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 0.2
High draw risk (36%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tusker Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
21%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
Mathare United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
82%
1 goals:
16%
2 goals:
2%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0 (21%) 1-0 (17%) 3-0 (17%) 0-0 (7%) 2-1 (4%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 17%
Over 2.5 Goals 45%
Under 2.5 Goals 55%
Tusker Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 08 Tusker vs Gor Mahia 2-1
Jan 28 Tusker vs Police 3-0
Jan 25 Tusker vs Ulinzi St… 0-0
Jan 22 Tusker vs Sofapaka 0-1
Jan 08 Tusker vs Bandari 2-1
Dec 22 Tusker vs KCB 1-2
Dec 04 Tusker vs AFC Leopa… 1-0
Oct 29 Tusker vs Police 2-2
Sep 18 Tusker vs Mara Sugar 1-2
Jun 12 Tusker vs Posta Ran… 2-0
Mathare United Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 12 Mathare U… vs Kisumu Al… 5-0
Feb 04 Mathare U… vs KCB 2-1
Jan 28 Mathare U… vs Homeboyz 1-5
Jan 25 Mathare U… vs Bidco Uni… 1-3
Jan 11 Mathare U… vs Posta Ran… 1-1
Jan 08 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 0-4
Jan 04 Mathare U… vs Ulinzi St… 3-1
Jun 12 Mathare U… vs Mombasa E… 1-3
Jun 05 Mathare U… vs Kisumu Al… 1-1
May 06 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 0-2
Key Analysis Factors
  • Tusker struggling (3L in last 5) Home
  • Mathare United struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Dec 30, 2021 Tusker 4 - 1 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Jul 20, 2021 Mathare United 0 - 0 Tusker FKF Premier Le…
Jan 31, 2021 Tusker 1 - 0 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tusker Power 0
Mathare United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Tusker Position

+4

Position Gap

12

Mathare United Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.