AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
FKF Premier League Dec 30, 2021

Tusker

Home
VS
12:00

Mathare United

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Tusker Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Mathare United Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 53%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 32%
xG: 3.38 - 0.49
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.4 vs 0.5
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Tusker Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Mathare United Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
61%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
7%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (13%) 2-0 (12%) 1-0 (7%) 3-1 (7%) 2-1 (6%) 1-1 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 37%
Over 2.5 Goals 62%
Under 2.5 Goals 38%
Tusker Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 12 Tusker vs Sofapaka 0-0
Sep 26 Tusker vs AFC Leopa… 1-0
Sep 22 Tusker vs Gor Mahia 2-1
Aug 07 Tusker vs Sofapaka 1-2
Aug 04 Tusker vs Bandari 2-1
Jul 20 Tusker vs Mathare U… 0-0
Jul 16 Tusker vs AFC Leopa… 2-0
Jul 08 Tusker vs Gor Mahia 2-1
Jan 31 Tusker vs Mathare U… 1-0
Jan 03 Tusker vs Sofapaka 1-1
Mathare United Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 08 Mathare U… vs Homeboyz 2-2
Nov 06 Mathare U… vs Bidco Uni… 0-1
Oct 20 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 1-2
Oct 16 Mathare U… vs Ulinzi St… 0-1
Sep 25 Mathare U… vs Bandari 3-0
Aug 18 Mathare U… vs Ulinzi St… 1-0
Aug 14 Mathare U… vs Bandari 3-0
Jul 31 Mathare U… vs Sofapaka 2-1
Jul 20 Mathare U… vs Tusker 0-0
Jul 15 Mathare U… vs Bidco Uni… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Mathare United struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 20, 2021 Mathare United 0 - 0 Tusker FKF Premier Le…
Jan 31, 2021 Tusker 1 - 0 Mathare United FKF Premier Le…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Tusker Power 0
Mathare United Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Tusker Position

+4

Position Gap

12

Mathare United Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.