AI Match Insights

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Liga Portugal 2 Jan 04, 2025

Chaves

Home
VS
14:00

Penafiel FC

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Chaves Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Penafiel FC Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 85%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 51% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 1.92 - 0.53
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.9 vs 0.5 Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
15%
1 goals:
28%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
8%
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
59%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (17%) 2-0 (16%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (9%) 0-0 (9%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 35%
Over 2.5 Goals 43%
Under 2.5 Goals 57%
Chaves Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 30 Chaves vs Portimone… 1-2
Nov 23 Chaves vs Casa Pia … 3-0
Nov 02 Chaves vs Pacos Fer… 2-1
Oct 26 Chaves vs Moreirense 0-3
Oct 20 Chaves vs Lusitânia… 2-0
Oct 06 Chaves vs Benfica 1-0
Sep 14 Chaves vs Felgueira… 1-2
Aug 25 Chaves vs MarĂ­timo 1-1
Jul 20 Chaves vs Felgueira… 1-0
May 18 Chaves vs Sporting … 3-0
Penafiel FC Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 22 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 0-1
Dec 14 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 3-1
Sep 28 Penafiel … vs Portimone… 0-2
Sep 15 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 1-1
Sep 01 Penafiel … vs Pacos Fer… 1-3
Aug 11 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 4-3
Jul 27 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 2-0
May 16 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-1
May 11 Penafiel … vs Länk FC V… 2-1
May 05 Penafiel … vs Marítimo 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Chaves in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • Penafiel FC in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jul 18, 2023 Penafiel FC 1 - 2 Chaves Friendlies Clu…
Mar 06, 2022 Penafiel FC 2 - 1 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Oct 10, 2021 Chaves 3 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Mar 29, 2021 Chaves 2 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Chaves to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chaves Power 0
Penafiel FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Chaves Position

+9

Position Gap

18

Penafiel FC Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.