AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga Portugal 2 Oct 10, 2021

Chaves

Home
VS
18:00

Penafiel FC

Away
AI Predictions 49.0% Confidence
Chaves Win
49.0%
Draw
24.2%
Penafiel FC Win
26.8%
Home Win (49% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 64%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.12 - 0.75
Key Insights
Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
33%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
47%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
13%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (17%) 0-0 (15%) 1-1 (13%) 0-1 (12%) 2-0 (10%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 36%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Under 2.5 Goals 71%
Chaves Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 03 Chaves vs Benfica 3-1
Sep 25 Chaves vs Felgueira… 2-0
Mar 29 Chaves vs Penafiel … 2-1
Mar 07 Chaves vs Moreirense 0-1
Feb 14 Chaves vs Benfica 0-0
Nov 09 Chaves vs Penafiel … 1-0
Oct 20 Chaves vs Moreirense 0-2
Sep 23 Chaves vs Benfica 3-4
Penafiel FC Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Jul 25 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-1
Apr 10 Penafiel … vs Leixões SC 2-0
Mar 29 Penafiel … vs Chaves 2-1
Mar 03 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-0
Feb 21 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 0-0
Nov 09 Penafiel … vs Chaves 1-0
Sep 27 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 1-2
Sep 18 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 2-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 2 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 29, 2021 Chaves 2 - 1 Penafiel FC Liga Portugal 2
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Chaves to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chaves Power 0
Penafiel FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Chaves Position

+9

Position Gap

18

Penafiel FC Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.