AI Match Insights

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Liga Portugal 2 Mar 29, 2021

Chaves

Home
VS
20:00

Penafiel FC

Away
AI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Chaves Win
39.0%
Draw
26.2%
Penafiel FC Win
34.8%
Home Win (39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 0-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 38%
Standings 64%
Market 50%
Combined: 39% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 0.30 - 1.13
Key Insights
Position gap: 9 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Chaves Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
74%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
3%
3 goals:
0%
4 goals:
0%
Penafiel FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
32%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
21%
3 goals:
8%
4 goals:
2%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1 (27%) 0-0 (24%) 0-2 (15%) 1-1 (8%) 1-0 (7%) 0-3 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 18%
Over 2.5 Goals 17%
Under 2.5 Goals 83%
Chaves Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 07 Chaves vs Moreirense 0-1
Feb 14 Chaves vs Benfica 0-0
Nov 09 Chaves vs Penafiel … 1-0
Oct 20 Chaves vs Moreirense 0-2
Sep 23 Chaves vs Benfica 3-4
Penafiel FC Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 03 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 1-0
Feb 21 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 0-0
Nov 09 Penafiel … vs Chaves 1-0
Sep 27 Penafiel … vs FC Porto 1-2
Sep 18 Penafiel … vs Moreirense 2-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Penafiel FC in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 1 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Nov 09, 2020 Penafiel FC 1 - 0 Chaves Liga Portugal 2
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Chaves to win (62% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 62% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_8+ (72.1%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Chaves Power 0
Penafiel FC Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Chaves Position

+9

Position Gap

18

Penafiel FC Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.