AI Match Insights

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Premier League 2 Division One Mar 01, 2024

Manchester United U21

Home
VS
19:00

Derby County U21

Away
AI Predictions 57.0% Confidence
Manchester United U21 Win
57.0%
Draw
22.6%
Derby County U21 Win
20.4%
Home Win (57% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
CS68+S65 (82.8%) S70+DR<22 (82.1%) S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) CS68+S70+DR<25 (80.0%) GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) TOP3vsBot (75.8%) M85+S60 (75.3%) CS68+M80 (75.0%) TOP3_VS_REL (80.8%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 95%
Market 50%
Combined: 69% Draw Risk: 21%
xG: 4.50 - 0.94
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.9 Position gap: 27 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Manchester United U21 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Derby County U21 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
39%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (7%) 3-1 (6%) 2-0 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 3-2 (3%) 1-0 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 60%
Over 2.5 Goals 61%
Under 2.5 Goals 39%
Manchester United U21 Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Oct 27 Mancheste… vs Fulham U21 1-1
Apr 21 Mancheste… vs Brighton … 3-2
Feb 24 Mancheste… vs Wolves U21 2-2
Jan 06 Mancheste… vs Fulham U21 1-2
Nov 22 Mancheste… vs Wolves U21 0-0
Oct 22 Mancheste… vs Wolves U21 3-2
Oct 08 Mancheste… vs Brighton … 3-3
Aug 26 Mancheste… vs Fulham U21 2-2
Derby County U21 Form 0.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 19 Derby Cou… vs Blackburn… 1-3
Jan 29 Derby Cou… vs Nottingha… 0-1
Sep 25 Derby Cou… vs Sunderlan… 3-1
Sep 01 Derby Cou… vs Aston Vil… 3-1
Apr 14 Derby Cou… vs Aston Vil… 3-0
Mar 20 Derby Cou… vs Stoke Cit… 1-6
Feb 24 Derby Cou… vs Nottingha… 0-2
Feb 20 Derby Cou… vs Sunderlan… 1-1
Jan 27 Derby Cou… vs Nottingha… 7-2
Nov 07 Derby Cou… vs Stoke Cit… 4-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Derby County U21 struggling (5L in last 5) Away
Final Verdict

ELITE: Manchester United U21 to win (95% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 2-0 95% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_25+ (68%) SCORING_THREAT_HOME
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 27
  • Power: 48 vs 19
Manchester United U21 Power 48
Derby County U21 Power 19
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Manchester United U21 Position

+27

Position Gap

28

Derby County U21 Position
Home Win Rate: 67%
Away Win Rate: 17%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.