AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Eerste Divisie Jan 13, 2023

De Graafschap

Home
VS
19:00

Jong Ajax

Away
AI Predictions 37.5% Confidence
De Graafschap Win
35.7%
Draw
26.9%
Jong Ajax Win
37.5%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 53%
Standings 82%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 54%
xG: 1.05 - 1.23
Key Insights
Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (54%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
De Graafschap Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
35%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Jong Ajax Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1 (13%) 0-1 (13%) 1-0 (11%) 0-0 (10%) 1-2 (8%) 0-2 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 46%
Over 2.5 Goals 40%
Under 2.5 Goals 60%
De Graafschap Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 11 De Graafs… vs PSV Eindh… 1-2
Nov 18 De Graafs… vs Helmond S… 0-2
Nov 04 De Graafs… vs Den Bosch 2-1
Oct 28 De Graafs… vs FC OSS 2-0
Oct 21 De Graafs… vs ADO Den H… 2-2
Oct 14 De Graafs… vs Utrecht 2-0
Sep 16 De Graafs… vs Almere Ci… 1-2
Sep 12 De Graafs… vs Roda 3-2
Aug 22 De Graafs… vs Jong Ajax 5-1
Jul 30 De Graafs… vs Roda 1-0
Jong Ajax Form 16.7%
Date Match Result
Aug 22 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 5-1
May 06 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 1-1
Nov 26 Jong Ajax vs De Graafs… 1-3
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 22, 2022 Jong Ajax 5 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
May 06, 2022 Jong Ajax 1 - 1 De Graafschap Eerste Divisie
Nov 26, 2021 De Graafschap 1 - 3 Jong Ajax Eerste Divisie
Final Verdict

STANDARD: De Graafschap to win (60% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 60% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 94
De Graafschap Power 0
Jong Ajax Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

5

De Graafschap Position

+15

Position Gap

20

Jong Ajax Position
Home Win Rate: 42%
Away Win Rate: 9%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.