AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Iraqi League May 21, 2024

Al Minaa Basra

Home
VS
13:00

Baghdad

Away
AI Predictions 43.0% Confidence
Al Minaa Basra Win
43.0%
Draw
25.4%
Baghdad Win
31.6%
Home Win (43% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 79%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 47% Draw Risk: 48%
xG: 1.80 - 0.89
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.8 vs 0.9
High draw risk (48%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Al Minaa Basra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Baghdad Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
16%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (12%) 2-0 (11%) 1-1 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 0-0 (7%) 3-0 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 49%
Over 2.5 Goals 49%
Under 2.5 Goals 51%
Al Minaa Basra Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
May 09 Al Minaa … vs Naft 0-0
Apr 30 Al Minaa … vs Zakho 3-1
Apr 14 Al Minaa … vs Al Shorta… 2-0
Apr 06 Al Minaa … vs Al Karkh 1-3
Mar 09 Al Minaa … vs Al Zawra'a 1-3
Mar 05 Al Minaa … vs Baghdad 0-1
Feb 29 Al Minaa … vs Duhok 2-0
Feb 24 Al Minaa … vs Naft 1-1
Feb 21 Al Minaa … vs Zakho 0-2
Dec 09 Al Minaa … vs Al-Talaba 0-1
Baghdad Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
May 13 Baghdad vs Al Shorta… 2-1
May 09 Baghdad vs Zakho 0-0
Mar 09 Baghdad vs Al Quwa A… 1-1
Mar 05 Baghdad vs Al Minaa … 0-1
Feb 29 Baghdad vs Erbil 4-1
Feb 16 Baghdad vs Zakho 1-0
Dec 05 Baghdad vs Al Shorta… 1-2
Nov 03 Baghdad vs Al Karkh 1-1
Jun 07 Baghdad vs Al Shorta… 2-0
May 28 Baghdad vs Al Minaa … 0-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Al Minaa Basra struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • Baghdad struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 05, 2024 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
May 28, 2022 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
Dec 21, 2021 Al Minaa Basra 1 - 1 Baghdad Iraqi League
May 11, 2021 Baghdad 0 - 1 Al Minaa Basra Iraqi League
Dec 29, 2020 Al Minaa Basra 0 - 1 Baghdad Iraqi League
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Al Minaa Basra Power 0
Baghdad Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

15

Al Minaa Basra Position

-2

Position Gap

13

Baghdad Position
Home Win Rate: 25%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.