AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Liga 3 Feb 07, 2026

União Santarém

Home
VS
19:30

Mafra

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
União Santarém Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Mafra Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 78%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 43%
xG: 1.72 - 0.90
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.9
High draw risk (43%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
União Santarém Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
18%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
7%
Mafra Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
41%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
17%
3 goals:
5%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 2-0 (11%) 2-1 (10%) 0-0 (7%) 0-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 49%
Over 2.5 Goals 48%
Under 2.5 Goals 52%
União Santarém Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 24 União San… vs CF Os Bel… 2-1
Jan 16 União San… vs Mafra 0-0
Jan 11 União San… vs Atlético … 1-1
Jan 04 União San… vs 1º Dezemb… 1-0
Dec 19 União San… vs Caldas 0-2
Dec 14 União San… vs Amora 0-0
Dec 07 União San… vs SC Covilha 1-1
Nov 29 União San… vs Academica 1-1
Nov 09 União San… vs Lusitano … 1-0
Nov 02 União San… vs CF Os Bel… 0-2
Mafra Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Jan 24 Mafra vs Atlético … 1-2
Jan 16 Mafra vs União San… 0-0
Jan 10 Mafra vs 1º Dezemb… 1-1
Jan 03 Mafra vs Caldas 4-2
Dec 20 Mafra vs Amora 1-2
Dec 13 Mafra vs SC Covilha 2-0
Dec 06 Mafra vs Academica 3-3
Nov 30 Mafra vs Lusitano … 1-1
Nov 09 Mafra vs CF Os Bel… 2-1
Nov 02 Mafra vs Atlético … 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • União Santarém in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Mafra in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 16, 2026 Mafra 0 - 0 União Santarém Liga 3
Oct 26, 2025 União Santarém 1 - 2 Mafra Liga 3
Oct 02, 2022 União Santarém 0 - 1 Mafra Taça de Portug…
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (23% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 23% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
União Santarém Power 0
Mafra Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

4

União Santarém Position

-2

Position Gap

2

Mafra Position
Home Win Rate: 33%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.