AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Feb 17, 2024

Napoli

Home
VS
14:00

Genoa

Away
AI Predictions 45.0% Confidence
Napoli Win
45.0%
Draw
25.0%
Genoa Win
30.0%
Home Win (45% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 71%
Standings 87%
Market 50%
Combined: 52% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.32 - 0.56
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.6 Position gap: 11 places
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
27%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Genoa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
57%
1 goals:
32%
2 goals:
9%
3 goals:
2%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (20%) 0-0 (15%) 2-0 (13%) 1-1 (11%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 31%
Over 2.5 Goals 29%
Under 2.5 Goals 71%
Napoli Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 11 Napoli vs AC Milan 1-0
Feb 11 Napoli vs AC Milan 1-0
Feb 04 Napoli vs Verona 2-1
Feb 04 Napoli vs Verona 2-1
Jan 28 Napoli vs Lazio 0-0
Jan 28 Napoli vs Lazio 0-0
Jan 22 Napoli vs Inter 0-1
Jan 18 Napoli vs Fiorentina 3-0
Jan 13 Napoli vs Salernita… 2-1
Jan 07 Napoli vs Torino 3-0
Genoa Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 11 Genoa vs Atalanta 1-4
Feb 11 Genoa vs Atalanta 1-4
Feb 03 Genoa vs Empoli 0-0
Jan 28 Genoa vs Lecce 2-1
Jan 21 Genoa vs Salernita… 1-2
Jan 13 Genoa vs Torino 0-0
Jan 05 Genoa vs Bologna 1-1
Jan 05 Genoa vs Bologna 1-1
Dec 29 Genoa vs Inter 1-1
Dec 29 Genoa vs Inter 1-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Sep 16, 2023 Genoa 2 - 2 Napoli Serie A
May 15, 2022 Napoli 3 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Aug 29, 2021 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 06, 2021 Genoa 2 - 1 Napoli Serie A
Sep 27, 2020 Napoli 6 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Jul 08, 2020 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

PRO: Napoli to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_10+ (74.9%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Napoli Power 40
Genoa Power 32
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

3

Napoli Position

+11

Position Gap

14

Genoa Position
Home Win Rate: 73%
Away Win Rate: 18%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.