AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Serie A Sep 16, 2023

Genoa

Home
VS
18:45

Napoli

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Genoa Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Napoli Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 69%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 41% Draw Risk: 46%
xG: 1.36 - 0.70
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.4 vs 0.7
High draw risk (46%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Genoa Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
11%
4 goals:
4%
Napoli Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
50%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
12%
3 goals:
3%
4 goals:
1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (17%) 0-0 (13%) 1-1 (12%) 2-0 (12%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 37%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Under 2.5 Goals 66%
Genoa Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 27 Genoa vs Lazio 0-1
Mar 01 Genoa vs Cagliari 0-0
Feb 05 Genoa vs Parma 2-0
Jan 28 Genoa vs Pisa 0-0
Jan 12 Genoa vs AS Roma 1-0
Oct 07 Genoa vs Cagliari 0-0
Sep 03 Genoa vs Parma 3-3
Aug 28 Genoa vs Pisa 0-1
Jul 27 Genoa vs Lazio 4-1
May 21 Genoa vs Bologna 0-1
Napoli Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 02 Napoli vs Lazio 1-2
Aug 27 Napoli vs Sassuolo 2-0
May 28 Napoli vs Bologna 2-2
May 21 Napoli vs Inter 3-1
May 07 Napoli vs Fiorentina 1-0
May 04 Napoli vs Udinese 1-1
Apr 23 Napoli vs Juventus 0-1
Apr 18 Napoli vs AC Milan 1-1
Apr 15 Napoli vs Verona 0-0
Apr 12 Napoli vs AC Milan 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Napoli in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 15, 2022 Napoli 3 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Aug 29, 2021 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Feb 06, 2021 Genoa 2 - 1 Napoli Serie A
Sep 27, 2020 Napoli 6 - 0 Genoa Serie A
Jul 08, 2020 Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli Serie A
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Genoa Power 32
Napoli Power 40
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

14

Genoa Position

-11

Position Gap

3

Napoli Position
Home Win Rate: 25%
Away Win Rate: 50%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.