AI Match Insights
League Two Mar 22, 2025
Grimsby
HomeVS
15:00
Newport County AFC
AwayAI Predictions 39.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
Draw
Newport County AFC Win
Home Win
(39% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%)
POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score
40%
Momentum
67%
Standings
77%
Market
50%
Combined: 49%
Draw Risk: 41%
xG: 1.34 - 0.82
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.3 vs 0.8
Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (41%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1 goals:
2 goals:
3 goals:
4 goals:
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (15%)
1-1 (13%)
0-0 (12%)
2-0 (10%)
0-1 (9%)
2-1 (8%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score)
41%
Over 2.5 Goals
36%
Under 2.5 Goals
64%
Grimsby Form 4.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15 | Grimsby vs Watford | 0-1 |
| Mar 15 | Grimsby vs Watford | 0-1 |
| Mar 11 | Grimsby vs Newport C… | 0-2 |
| Mar 11 | Grimsby vs Newport C… | 0-2 |
| Mar 08 | Grimsby vs Walsall | 1-3 |
| Mar 04 | Grimsby vs Tranmere … | 1-1 |
| Mar 04 | Grimsby vs Tranmere … | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Grimsby vs Chelsea | 1-1 |
| Mar 01 | Grimsby vs Chelsea | 1-1 |
| Feb 22 | Grimsby vs Fleetwood… | 2-1 |
Newport County AFC Form 8.0%
| Date | Match | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 1-2 |
| Mar 15 | Newport C… vs Harrogate | 3-0 |
| Mar 15 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 1-2 |
| Mar 11 | Newport C… vs Grimsby | 0-2 |
| Mar 11 | Newport C… vs Accringto… | 5-0 |
| Mar 11 | Newport C… vs Grimsby | 0-2 |
| Mar 11 | Newport C… vs Accringto… | 5-0 |
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 2-1 |
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs AFC Wimbl… | 2-0 |
| Mar 08 | Newport C… vs Chesterfi… | 2-1 |
Key Analysis Factors
- Grimsby struggling (4L in last 5) Home
- Newport County AFC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
| Date | Home Team | Score | Away Team | League |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 11, 2025 | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Nov 16, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 0 - 0 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Newport County AFC | 4 - 1 | Grimsby | Pro League |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
| Apr 06, 2024 | Grimsby | 1 - 0 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | Pro League |
| Jan 13, 2024 | Grimsby | 5 - 5 | Newport County AFC | League Two |
Final Verdict
PRO: Grimsby to win (74% confidence)
PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0
74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%)
AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%)
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
- No key factors identified
Grimsby Power
38
Newport County AFC Power
26
Home Form
N/A
Away Form
N/A
League Standings Context
9
Grimsby Position+14
Position Gap23
Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis.
Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.