AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League Two Apr 06, 2024

Grimsby

Home
VS
14:00

Newport County AFC

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
Grimsby Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
Newport County AFC Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 84%
Standings 77%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 1.71 - 0.39
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.7 vs 0.4 Position gap: 14 places
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Grimsby Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
18%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
15%
4 goals:
6%
Newport County AFC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
68%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (21%) 2-0 (18%) 0-0 (12%) 3-0 (10%) 1-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 26%
Over 2.5 Goals 34%
Under 2.5 Goals 66%
Grimsby Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 01 Grimsby vs Brentford 1-1
Mar 29 Grimsby vs Barrow 3-1
Mar 23 Grimsby vs Wrexham 1-3
Mar 16 Grimsby vs Birmingham 1-1
Mar 12 Grimsby vs Milton Ke… 1-0
Mar 12 Grimsby vs Milton Ke… 1-0
Mar 09 Grimsby vs Southampt… 1-1
Mar 05 Grimsby vs AFC Wimbl… 0-0
Mar 02 Grimsby vs Forest Gr… 1-0
Feb 24 Grimsby vs Morecambe 1-1
Newport County AFC Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 01 Newport C… vs Crawley T… 0-4
Apr 01 Newport C… vs Milton Ke… 3-3
Apr 01 Newport C… vs Crawley T… 0-4
Apr 01 Newport C… vs Milton Ke… 3-3
Mar 29 Newport C… vs Swindon 2-1
Mar 29 Newport C… vs Mancheste… 2-1
Mar 29 Newport C… vs Mancheste… 2-1
Mar 29 Newport C… vs Swindon 2-1
Mar 23 Newport C… vs Barrow 1-0
Mar 23 Newport C… vs Barrow 1-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Newport County AFC struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 10 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 13, 2024 Grimsby 5 - 5 Newport County AFC Pro League
Jan 13, 2024 Grimsby 5 - 5 Newport County AFC League Two
Dec 16, 2023 Newport County AFC 1 - 1 Grimsby League Two
Dec 16, 2023 Newport County AFC 1 - 1 Grimsby Pro League
Aug 12, 2023 Newport County AFC 3 - 2 Grimsby League Two
Mar 07, 2023 Grimsby 1 - 1 Newport County AFC League Two
Sep 03, 2022 Newport County AFC 0 - 2 Grimsby League Two
May 23, 2022 Newport County AFC 1 - 2 Grimsby National League
Feb 05, 2022 Newport County AFC 1 - 2 Grimsby National League
Oct 30, 2021 Grimsby 0 - 1 Newport County AFC National League
Final Verdict

PRO: Grimsby to win (74% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 1-0 74% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Grimsby Power 38
Newport County AFC Power 26
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

9

Grimsby Position

+14

Position Gap

23

Newport County AFC Position
Home Win Rate: 43%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.