AI Match Insights

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League Two Nov 16, 2024

Milton Keynes Dons

Home
VS
15:00

Cheltenham

Away
AI Predictions 63.0% Confidence
Milton Keynes Dons Win
63.0%
Draw
21.4%
Cheltenham Win
15.6%
Home Win (63% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 84%
Market 50%
Combined: 57% Draw Risk: 26%
xG: 3.52 - 1.23
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.5 vs 1.2 Position gap: 12 places
High draw risk (26%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Milton Keynes Dons Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
10%
2 goals:
18%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Cheltenham Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (8%) 2-1 (7%) 3-0 (6%) 2-0 (5%) 3-2 (5%) 2-2 (4%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 71%
Under 2.5 Goals 29%
Milton Keynes Dons Form 20.0%
Date Match Result
Nov 09 Milton Ke… vs Swindon 3-1
Nov 09 Milton Ke… vs Swindon 3-1
Oct 26 Milton Ke… vs Grimsby 1-3
Oct 26 Milton Ke… vs Grimsby 1-3
Oct 22 Milton Ke… vs Accringto… 2-1
Oct 22 Milton Ke… vs Accringto… 2-1
Oct 19 Milton Ke… vs Morecambe 1-3
Oct 12 Milton Ke… vs Port Vale 0-1
Oct 05 Milton Ke… vs Tranmere … 1-1
Oct 05 Milton Ke… vs Tranmere … 1-1
Cheltenham Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 15 Cheltenham vs Milton Ke… 2-2
Oct 29 Cheltenham vs Milton Ke… 0-0
Aug 30 Cheltenham vs Milton Ke… 1-2
Mar 08 Cheltenham vs Milton Ke… 3-1
Sep 04 Cheltenham vs Milton Ke… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Milton Keynes Dons in strong form (5W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 15, 2023 Milton Keynes Dons 2 - 2 Cheltenham League One
Oct 29, 2022 Cheltenham 0 - 0 Milton Keynes Dons League One
Aug 30, 2022 Milton Keynes Dons 1 - 2 Cheltenham EFL Trophy
Mar 08, 2022 Milton Keynes Dons 3 - 1 Cheltenham League One
Sep 04, 2021 Cheltenham 1 - 1 Milton Keynes Dons League One
Final Verdict

ELITE: Milton Keynes Dons to win (95% confidence)

ELITE Tier
Predicted: 2-0 95% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE POWER_HOME_25+ (68%) SCORING_THREAT_HOME
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 93
  • Power: 44 vs 0
Milton Keynes Dons Power 44
Cheltenham Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

6

Milton Keynes Dons Position

+12

Position Gap

18

Cheltenham Position
Home Win Rate: 53%
Away Win Rate: 21%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.