AI Match Insights

Bundesliga Sep 23, 2023

FC Augsburg

Home
VS
13:30

FSV Mainz 05

Away
AI Predictions 51.0% Confidence
FC Augsburg Win
51.0%
Draw
23.8%
FSV Mainz 05 Win
25.2%
Home Win (51% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
M85+S60 (75.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 62%
Market 50%
Combined: 63% Draw Risk: 20%
xG: 4.50 - 1.33
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 1.3 Position gap: 5 places
Score Prediction Analysis
FC Augsburg Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
FSV Mainz 05 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
26%
1 goals:
35%
2 goals:
23%
3 goals:
10%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (6%) 3-0 (4%) 2-1 (4%) 3-2 (4%) 2-0 (3%) 2-2 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 73%
Over 2.5 Goals 63%
Under 2.5 Goals 37%
FC Augsburg Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 02 FC Augsbu… vs Hertha Be… 6-4
Aug 27 FC Augsbu… vs Bayern Mu… 3-1
Aug 20 FC Augsbu… vs Holstein … 2-4
Aug 19 FC Augsbu… vs Borussia … 4-4
Aug 06 FC Augsbu… vs Eintracht… 2-1
May 27 FC Augsbu… vs Borussia … 2-0
May 12 FC Augsbu… vs FC Nurnbe… 2-2
May 06 FC Augsbu… vs Union Ber… 1-0
Apr 29 FC Augsbu… vs Eintracht… 1-1
Apr 22 FC Augsbu… vs Eintracht… 1-2
FSV Mainz 05 Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Aug 20 FSV Mainz… vs Union Ber… 4-1
Apr 30 FSV Mainz… vs VfL Wolfs… 3-0
Apr 22 FSV Mainz… vs Bayern Mu… 3-1
Apr 15 FSV Mainz… vs FC Koln 1-1
Apr 01 FSV Mainz… vs RB Leipzig 0-3
Mar 04 FSV Mainz… vs 1899 Hoff… 1-0
Feb 24 FSV Mainz… vs Borussia … 4-0
Feb 11 FSV Mainz… vs FC Augsbu… 3-1
Feb 04 FSV Mainz… vs Union Ber… 2-1
Feb 01 FSV Mainz… vs Bayern Mu… 0-4
Key Analysis Factors
  • FC Augsburg in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Feb 11, 2023 FSV Mainz 05 3 - 1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
Aug 20, 2022 FC Augsburg 1 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
Apr 06, 2022 FC Augsburg 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2021 FSV Mainz 05 4 - 1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
Feb 28, 2021 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
Final Verdict

PRO: FC Augsburg to win (70% confidence)

PRO Tier
Predicted: 2-1 70% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FC Augsburg Power 28
FSV Mainz 05 Power 43
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

11

FC Augsburg Position

+5

Position Gap

16

FSV Mainz 05 Position

Home Win Rate: 36%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.