AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Bundesliga Feb 11, 2023

FSV Mainz 05

Home
VS
14:30

FC Augsburg

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
FSV Mainz 05 Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
FC Augsburg Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 80%
Standings 40%
Market 50%
Combined: 46% Draw Risk: 32%
xG: 2.41 - 1.42
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 1.4
High draw risk (32%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
13%
FC Augsburg Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
24%
1 goals:
34%
2 goals:
24%
3 goals:
12%
4 goals:
4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (7%) 3-1 (7%) 2-2 (6%) 2-0 (6%) 1-2 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 70%
Under 2.5 Goals 30%
FSV Mainz 05 Form 2.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 FSV Mainz… vs Union Ber… 2-1
Feb 01 FSV Mainz… vs Bayern Mu… 0-4
Jan 14 FSV Mainz… vs 1899 Hoff… 2-2
Nov 05 FSV Mainz… vs VfL Wolfs… 0-3
Oct 29 FSV Mainz… vs Bayern Mu… 6-2
Oct 21 FSV Mainz… vs FC Koln 5-0
Oct 08 FSV Mainz… vs RB Leipzig 1-1
Sep 10 FSV Mainz… vs 1899 Hoff… 4-1
Sep 04 FSV Mainz… vs Borussia … 0-1
Aug 20 FSV Mainz… vs FC Augsbu… 1-2
FC Augsburg Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 FC Augsbu… vs Bayer Lev… 1-0
Jan 28 FC Augsbu… vs SC Freibu… 3-1
Jan 27 FC Augsbu… vs Fortuna D… 3-2
Jan 25 FC Augsbu… vs Borussia … 1-0
Jan 07 FC Augsbu… vs Union Ber… 0-1
Jan 07 FC Augsbu… vs Union Ber… 1-0
Nov 09 FC Augsbu… vs Union Ber… 2-2
Nov 06 FC Augsbu… vs FC Nurnbe… 1-2
Nov 05 FC Augsbu… vs Eintracht… 1-2
Oct 19 FC Augsbu… vs Bayern Mu… 2-5
Key Analysis Factors
  • FSV Mainz 05 struggling (4L in last 5) Home
  • FC Augsburg struggling (3L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 20, 2022 FC Augsburg 1 - 2 FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
Apr 06, 2022 FC Augsburg 2 - 1 FSV Mainz 05 Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2021 FSV Mainz 05 4 - 1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
Feb 28, 2021 FSV Mainz 05 0 - 1 FC Augsburg Bundesliga
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
FSV Mainz 05 Power 43
FC Augsburg Power 28
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

16

FSV Mainz 05 Position

-5

Position Gap

11

FC Augsburg Position
Home Win Rate: 20%
Away Win Rate: 22%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.