AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Bundesliga Sep 23, 2023

Borussia Dortmund

Home
VS
13:30

VfL Wolfsburg

Away
AI Predictions 47.0% Confidence
Borussia Dortmund Win
47.0%
Draw
24.6%
VfL Wolfsburg Win
28.4%
Home Win (47% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) S75+DR<25 (81.8%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) HWR75+DR<22 (80.6%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) GAP8+HWR60 (78.2%) GAP5+HWR70 (77.9%) HWR70+AWR<30 (75.9%) M85+S60 (75.3%) HWR80+DR<25 (75.0%) GAP10_HWR60 (79.9%) POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) HOME_FORT (73.3%) TOP5vsBOT (72.7%) HWR60+ (68.3%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) CS65+DR<30 (68.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 88%
Market 50%
Combined: 68% Draw Risk: 10%
xG: 4.50 - 0.51
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.5 Position gap: 12 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Borussia Dortmund Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
VfL Wolfsburg Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
60%
1 goals:
31%
2 goals:
8%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (10%) 2-0 (7%) 3-1 (5%) 2-1 (3%) 1-0 (3%) 1-1 (2%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 40%
Over 2.5 Goals 58%
Under 2.5 Goals 42%
Borussia Dortmund Form 18.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 16 Borussia … vs SC Freibu… 2-4
Sep 01 Borussia … vs FC Heiden… 2-2
May 13 Borussia … vs Borussia … 5-2
May 07 Borussia … vs VfL Wolfs… 6-0
Apr 22 Borussia … vs Eintracht… 4-0
Apr 15 Borussia … vs VfB Stutt… 3-3
Apr 08 Borussia … vs Union Ber… 2-1
Feb 25 Borussia … vs 1899 Hoff… 0-1
Feb 11 Borussia … vs Werder Br… 0-2
Feb 04 Borussia … vs SC Freibu… 5-1
VfL Wolfsburg Form 16.0%
Date Match Result
Sep 16 VfL Wolfs… vs Union Ber… 2-1
Aug 26 VfL Wolfs… vs FC Koln 1-2
Aug 19 VfL Wolfs… vs FC Heiden… 2-0
Jul 22 VfL Wolfs… vs SC Freibu… 2-3
May 19 VfL Wolfs… vs SC Freibu… 2-0
May 07 VfL Wolfs… vs Borussia … 6-0
Apr 30 VfL Wolfs… vs FSV Mainz… 3-0
Apr 16 VfL Wolfs… vs Bayer Lev… 0-0
Apr 09 VfL Wolfs… vs Borussia … 2-0
Mar 12 VfL Wolfs… vs Union Ber… 1-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Borussia Dortmund in strong form (4W in last 5) Home
  • VfL Wolfsburg in strong form (4W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
May 07, 2023 Borussia Dortmund 6 - 0 VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga
Nov 08, 2022 VfL Wolfsburg 2 - 0 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
Apr 16, 2022 Borussia Dortmund 6 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg Bundesliga
Nov 27, 2021 VfL Wolfsburg 1 - 3 Borussia Dortmund Bundesliga
Final Verdict

MASTER: Borussia Dortmund to win (75% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 75% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_12+ (76.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Borussia Dortmund Power 47
VfL Wolfsburg Power 35
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

2

Borussia Dortmund Position

+12

Position Gap

14

VfL Wolfsburg Position
Home Win Rate: 80%
Away Win Rate: 30%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.