AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
Sergipano Feb 17, 2024

Sergipe

Home
VS
19:00

Dorense

Away
AI Predictions 59.0% Confidence
Sergipe Win
59.0%
Draw
22.2%
Dorense Win
18.8%
Home Win (59% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
S70+DR<22 (82.1%) M75+S65+DR<22 (81.1%) M70+S70+DR<22 (80.6%) M85+S60 (75.3%) GAP5_HWR50 (73.5%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 94%
Standings 72%
Market 50%
Combined: 64% Draw Risk: 3%
xG: 4.50 - 0.36
Key Insights
xG dominance: 4.5 vs 0.4 Position gap: 6 places
Score Prediction Analysis
Sergipe Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
1%
1 goals:
5%
2 goals:
11%
3 goals:
17%
4 goals:
19%
Dorense Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
70%
1 goals:
25%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0 (12%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (4%) 1-0 (3%) 2-1 (3%) 1-1 (1%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 30%
Over 2.5 Goals 57%
Under 2.5 Goals 43%
Sergipe Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 04 Sergipe vs Confiança 2-1
Jan 28 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 0-2
Jan 21 Sergipe vs América M… 1-1
Apr 08 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Apr 02 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Mar 11 Sergipe vs Falcon 4-1
Feb 26 Sergipe vs AO Itabai… 2-1
Feb 12 Sergipe vs Confiança 1-0
Jan 30 Sergipe vs América M… 2-0
Jan 14 Sergipe vs Dorense 1-0
Dorense Form 4.0%
Date Match Result
Feb 03 Dorense vs Lagarto 3-1
Jan 27 Dorense vs América M… 0-2
Jan 13 Dorense vs Falcon 2-3
Mar 15 Dorense vs América M… 2-0
Feb 04 Dorense vs Lagarto 4-1
Jan 28 Dorense vs Falcon 3-0
Jan 21 Dorense vs AO Itabai… 0-1
Jan 14 Dorense vs Sergipe 1-0
Apr 18 Dorense vs Sergipe 1-1
Mar 28 Dorense vs AO Itabai… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Sergipe in strong form (3W in last 5) Home
  • Dorense struggling (4L in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 3 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Jan 14, 2023 Sergipe 1 - 0 Dorense Sergipano
Apr 18, 2021 Sergipe 1 - 1 Dorense Sergipano
Mar 06, 2021 Dorense 0 - 3 Sergipe Sergipano
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Sergipe to win (61% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-0 61% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_5+ (66.8%) HOME_TOP_3 (62.5%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Sergipe Power 0
Dorense Power 0
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

1

Sergipe Position

+6

Position Gap

7

Dorense Position
Home Win Rate: 50%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.