AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Dec 26, 2023

Stevenage

Home
VS
15:00

Northampton Town FC

Away
AI Predictions 38.0% Confidence
Stevenage Win
35.0%
Draw
27.0%
Northampton Town FC Win
38.0%
Away Win (38% confidence)
Predicted Score: 2-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
POS_GAP_10+ (73.8%) POS_GAP_5+ (67.0%) xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 82%
Standings 80%
Market 50%
Combined: 53% Draw Risk: 37%
xG: 2.37 - 1.25
Key Insights
xG dominance: 2.4 vs 1.2 Position gap: 15 places
High draw risk (37%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Stevenage Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
9%
1 goals:
22%
2 goals:
26%
3 goals:
21%
4 goals:
12%
Northampton Town FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
29%
1 goals:
36%
2 goals:
22%
3 goals:
9%
4 goals:
3%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1 (9%) 1-1 (8%) 2-0 (8%) 3-1 (7%) 1-0 (6%) 3-0 (6%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 65%
Over 2.5 Goals 67%
Under 2.5 Goals 33%
Stevenage Form 8.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 23 Stevenage vs Burnley 2-1
Dec 23 Stevenage vs Burnley 2-1
Dec 16 Stevenage vs Exeter Ci… 1-1
Dec 16 Stevenage vs Exeter Ci… 1-1
Dec 09 Stevenage vs Bolton 1-2
Dec 09 Stevenage vs Brighton 1-2
Nov 28 Stevenage vs Peterboro… 2-2
Nov 28 Stevenage vs Peterboro… 2-2
Nov 25 Stevenage vs Fleetwood… 0-3
Nov 18 Stevenage vs Lincoln 1-0
Northampton Town FC Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Dec 23 Northampt… vs Oxford Un… 2-1
Dec 16 Northampt… vs Carlisle 2-2
Dec 09 Northampt… vs Fleetwood… 3-0
Dec 02 Northampt… vs Portsmout… 0-3
Nov 28 Northampt… vs Blackpool 1-2
Nov 28 Northampt… vs Blackpool 1-2
Nov 25 Northampt… vs Cambridge… 2-1
Nov 11 Northampt… vs Brighton 2-0
Oct 21 Northampt… vs Bolton 2-1
Oct 03 Northampt… vs Reading FC 3-1
Key Analysis Factors
  • Northampton Town FC in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 6 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Aug 05, 2023 Northampton Town FC 0 - 1 Stevenage League One
Apr 01, 2023 Northampton Town FC 1 - 1 Stevenage League Two
Oct 22, 2022 Stevenage 2 - 3 Northampton Town FC League Two
Mar 15, 2022 Stevenage 1 - 2 Northampton Town FC League Two
Oct 19, 2021 Northampton Town FC 3 - 0 Stevenage League Two
Nov 17, 2020 Northampton Town FC 0 - 0 Stevenage EFL Trophy
Final Verdict

MASTER: Stevenage to win (75% confidence)

MASTER Tier
Predicted: 1-0 75% Confidence
Rules Passed
POS_GAP_15+ (79.5%) AWAY_BOTTOM_5 (61.2%) HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • Huge position gap: 15
Stevenage Power 36
Northampton Town FC Power 31
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

8

Stevenage Position

+15

Position Gap

23

Northampton Town FC Position
Home Win Rate: 46%
Away Win Rate: 20%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.