AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Aug 05, 2023

Northampton Town FC

Home
VS
14:00

Stevenage

Away
AI Predictions 37.0% Confidence
Northampton Town FC Win
37.0%
Draw
26.6%
Stevenage Win
36.4%
Home Win (37% confidence)
Predicted Score: 1-0
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 70%
Standings 30%
Market 50%
Combined: 42% Draw Risk: 55%
xG: 1.08 - 0.38
Key Insights
xG dominance: 1.1 vs 0.4
High draw risk (55%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Northampton Town FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
34%
1 goals:
37%
2 goals:
20%
3 goals:
7%
4 goals:
2%
Stevenage Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
68%
1 goals:
26%
2 goals:
5%
3 goals:
1%
4 goals:
0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0 (25%) 0-0 (23%) 2-0 (14%) 1-1 (10%) 0-1 (9%) 2-1 (5%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 21%
Over 2.5 Goals 18%
Under 2.5 Goals 82%
Northampton Town FC Form 10.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 01 Northampt… vs Stevenage 1-1
Feb 14 Northampt… vs AFC Wimbl… 0-0
Feb 04 Northampt… vs Walsall 0-0
Jan 14 Northampt… vs Stockport 2-0
Oct 22 Northampt… vs Stevenage 2-3
Oct 04 Northampt… vs Walsall 1-0
Sep 24 Northampt… vs Stockport 2-1
Sep 13 Northampt… vs AFC Wimbl… 0-2
Aug 09 Northampt… vs Wycombe 1-2
Mar 15 Northampt… vs Stevenage 1-2
Stevenage Form 14.0%
Date Match Result
Apr 22 Stevenage vs Mansfield… 1-0
Apr 18 Stevenage vs Doncaster 1-0
Apr 15 Stevenage vs AFC Wimbl… 2-1
Apr 01 Stevenage vs Northampt… 1-1
Mar 11 Stevenage vs Walsall 3-1
Feb 28 Stevenage vs AFC Wimbl… 2-3
Feb 18 Stevenage vs Stockport 2-0
Jan 21 Stevenage vs Leyton Or… 3-0
Dec 27 Stevenage vs Leyton Or… 0-0
Dec 10 Stevenage vs Mansfield… 0-0
Key Analysis Factors
  • Stevenage in strong form (3W in last 5) Away
Head-to-Head History Last 5 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Apr 01, 2023 Northampton Town FC 1 - 1 Stevenage League Two
Oct 22, 2022 Stevenage 2 - 3 Northampton Town FC League Two
Mar 15, 2022 Stevenage 1 - 2 Northampton Town FC League Two
Oct 19, 2021 Northampton Town FC 3 - 0 Stevenage League Two
Nov 17, 2020 Northampton Town FC 0 - 0 Stevenage EFL Trophy
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Northampton Town FC Power 31
Stevenage Power 36
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

23

Northampton Town FC Position

-15

Position Gap

8

Stevenage Position
Home Win Rate: 36%
Away Win Rate: 33%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.