AI Match Insights

Match Details Home
League One Mar 11, 2025

Exeter City

Home
VS
19:45

Mansfield Town FC

Away
AI Predictions 55.0% Confidence
Exeter City Win
55.0%
Draw
23.0%
Mansfield Town FC Win
22.0%
Home Win (55% confidence)
Predicted Score: 3-1
Decision Justification
Validated Rules (80%+ Accuracy from 90-Day Backtest)
xG_ADV (67.5%)
Player Score 40%
Momentum 88%
Standings 46%
Market 50%
Combined: 49% Draw Risk: 40%
xG: 3.38 - 1.78
Key Insights
xG dominance: 3.4 vs 1.8
High draw risk (40%) - confidence penalized
Score Prediction Analysis
Exeter City Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
3%
1 goals:
12%
2 goals:
19%
3 goals:
22%
4 goals:
19%
Mansfield Town FC Goal Probabilities
0 goals:
17%
1 goals:
30%
2 goals:
27%
3 goals:
16%
4 goals:
7%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-1 (7%) 3-2 (6%) 2-1 (6%) 2-2 (5%) 3-0 (4%) 3-3 (3%)
BTTS (Both Teams Score) 80%
Over 2.5 Goals 75%
Under 2.5 Goals 25%
Exeter City Form 12.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 08 Exeter Ci… vs Shrewsbury 2-0
Mar 04 Exeter Ci… vs Reading FC 0-0
Mar 01 Exeter Ci… vs Northampt… 1-1
Feb 22 Exeter Ci… vs Charlton 3-0
Feb 15 Exeter Ci… vs Cambridge… 0-1
Feb 01 Exeter Ci… vs Stevenage 4-1
Jan 28 Exeter Ci… vs Leyton Or… 2-6
Jan 25 Exeter Ci… vs Blackpool 1-3
Jan 21 Exeter Ci… vs Peterboro… 1-1
Jan 18 Exeter Ci… vs Birmingham 1-0
Mansfield Town FC Form 6.0%
Date Match Result
Mar 08 Mansfield… vs Stevenage 1-1
Mar 04 Mansfield… vs Wigan 0-0
Mar 01 Mansfield… vs Bolton 1-1
Feb 23 Mansfield… vs Wrexham 1-2
Feb 18 Mansfield… vs Lincoln 0-3
Feb 15 Mansfield… vs Blackpool 3-3
Feb 11 Mansfield… vs Leyton Or… 3-0
Feb 07 Mansfield… vs Northampt… 0-1
Feb 01 Mansfield… vs Shrewsbury 2-1
Jan 28 Mansfield… vs Crawley T… 0-1
Key Analysis Factors

No specific factors identified for this match.

Head-to-Head History Last 4 matches
Date Home Team Score Away Team League
Mar 04, 2022 Mansfield Town FC 2 - 1 Exeter City League Two
Oct 23, 2021 Exeter City 2 - 1 Mansfield Town FC League Two
Apr 05, 2021 Exeter City 0 - 0 Mansfield Town FC League Two
Sep 26, 2020 Mansfield Town FC 1 - 2 Exeter City League Two
Final Verdict

STANDARD: Draw expected (33% confidence)

STANDARD Tier
Predicted: 1-1 33% Confidence
Rules Passed
HOME_ADVANTAGE
Key Factors
  • No key factors identified
Exeter City Power 36
Mansfield Town FC Power 37
Home Form N/A
Away Form N/A
League Standings Context

13

Exeter City Position

-2

Position Gap

11

Mansfield Town FC Position
Home Win Rate: 54%
Away Win Rate: 29%
Disclaimer: These AI predictions are based on historical data and statistical analysis. Football matches can be unpredictable, and actual results may vary significantly from predictions.